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Random Thoughts

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All eyes on NDX 1550!

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  • "Every day is a gift, that why they call it the present"

  • "If you're an index die-hard, dollar-cost averaging into stocks, you can be comfortable staying with your plan - particularly if your existing wealth is small relative to your expected future savings. But if you've got all your dough invested in stocks, and it's all the dough you're ever going to make, think twice. Then think three times. Both theory and historical evidence are against the proposition that stocks will be a very rewarding investment for long-term investors committing a lump-sum to the stock market at current prices. It's a point I've made often in recent months, but I can't imagine how it could be over-emphasized." -- Dr. John Hussman.

  • Doggy Style!

  • As it stands, our initial triple lindy resistance (S&P 1220, NDX 1580, BKX 98) is keepin' the ball in Boo's paws. NDX 1550 and S&P 1195 are the largest blips on the other side of the radar.

  • I often opine that if we don't stay humble, the market will do it for us. Well, serve me up a slice of pie as I thought that crude put in the '05 top with yesterday's spike. As it stands, we traded above the intraday peak in the crude futes (although we're still below the overnight highs). Sometimes we're gonna be the bug and other times we'll be the windshield (mea culpa).

  • Our immediate gratification society.

  • The homies are playin' some ketchup today.

  • Angst? With the VXO pre-teen?

  • Does your P&L dictate your state of mind?

  • Fleck's Rap.

  • We've gotta wishbone commodity complex today as energy hums and the metals bum. As it stands, the CRB is up 2.5% and putting some distance between itself and its acne.

  • Desperate times call for desperate measures.

  • "The NASDAQ and SPX both had outside range reversals on Monday, increasing the opportunities for additional short-term gains. Volume flows were well below average, calling into question the legitimacy of the move, but it was clearly a stronger than weaker day for stocks. We suspect the market's reaction has more to do with energy making a potentially climactic run in the near-term, than any benefit from Bastiat's broken window. Energy bulls could hardly ask for a more news worthy event to provide them with the excuse to sell into the strength. Cyclical peaks and trends change when the news is good, not bad. While some shorts may still be involved, a $1 move in the Nat Gas futures contract is worth $10,000. From Friday's close to Monday's open, short positions found themselves with $25,000 losses per contract, that 6 sigma move likely wrung most shorts from the game." -- Lehman's aptly named chartist Jeff DeGraaf

  • There is a fine line between adapting and rationalizing. It's called success.

  • Continued prayers to those in the path of Katrina's wrath. There are alotta folks wandering aimlessly near the bayou wishin' that the market was the worst of their woes.

  • What, me worry?

  • Keep those FOMC minutes on your screen (2pm) as some Hawks have been circlin' of late.

  • Well, I guess if you're gonna measure your team, you might as well measure it against the best. T-minus nine days till the pigs get skinned!

  • Can Dubya tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) a day after saying that he wouldn't?

  • I sure hope he gets back in time for the 2:00 meeting!


    R.P.
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