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Random Thoughts


What're you waiting for? I'll see you in Ojai!

  • The other side of A.D.D!

  • If excess breeds excess, doesn't it make sense that we'll see some serious multiple contraction as we truck ahead through the muck? That seems intuitive to me, although the timing is clearly elusive. I'll offer that when (if) that dynamic arrives, alotta fundamental mavens will be scratching their heads as stocks get cheap and cheaper.

  • We don't "do" advice in the 'Ville very often but I'll make an exception. If you can swing a fling with CSN, lock and load baby. They were right and tight on their flight through memory lane.

  • Sammy! Ojai's to the west!

  • "A modest pickup in volume flows accompanied Tuesday's advance, as 2:1 breadth numbers glided into the finish. Overall, Tuesday was a solid day showing continued modest accumulation with Utilities, Materials, Energy and Technology leading the way. For several weeks we have maintained that Materials were the best way to express a bullish view on the global cycle, in that the correction from the spring had sufficiently cleansed the bulls out of those positions, while Energy remained aggressively bid, and over-exposed. Our recent Rydex work continues to show a lack of commitment by investors in the material space, and an almost 27% allocation in Energy. In other words, the Material's trade still seems to have favorable risk reward as compared with energy." -- Lehman Technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • We flagged Microsoft (MSFT) yesterday as it tickled through the 200-day and it kept on truckin'. As this monster is 2% of the DJIA, 2.35% of the S&P and 7.24% of the NDX, it should remain on ye radar.

  • Inversion perversion.

  • "Some economists see the zero savings rate as the result of a relentless downtrend. Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley, predicts a negative figure when the statistics are updated for July. 'There is no reason why it would go up when the interest rate is so low. It's perfectly rational for people to not be saving when interest rates are as low as they are,' he said." - Wall Street Journal, August 3, 2005

  • You're my boy Blue!

  • While asset class deflation remains a risk, I continue to sense that the metals will follow energy as relative winners of the "new" world order. While I've been in this camp for a few years (and think it'll come at the expense of tech and financials), I think we're still in the early innings of a much broader secular shift.

    Not advice--and not a vibe for today--but worthy of a mention as we watch the XAU arrive on time for her date with the 200-day.

  • A view from afar.

  • This pebble is gonna leave some isolationist ripples in its wake.

  • Hoofy continues to circle his wagons at BKX 100. This is a BIG level for the tape.

  • I have nipples Greg, can you milk me?

  • The Wells Fargo (WFC) announcement is par for the State of the Art course.

  • Driller? I don't even...

  • Abbey Joseph Cohen?

  • From Russia with love!

  • October paper, for all you option players, captures 54% of the third quarter earnings for the S&P.

  • Chinese food for thought.

  • It's hard to believe that MVHQ will be loading up our wagons and heading west in ten days. Just in case you haven't seen the line-up on tap, I'll take the liberty to share it with ye faithful: Michael Santoli, Jeff Saut, Steve Shobin, Tom DeMark, Collins, Depew, Dingmann, Erlanger, Goepfert, Herb Greenberg, Gula, Fari, Vitaliy, Macke, Laurie McGuirk, David Miller, Dr. J, Scotto Reamer, Fokker, Roney, Bernie Schaeffer, Sanjay, Succ, Michael Thompson, Fish, Weldon, Zucchi and (I hear) Snoop Tony Dwyer. Humbling stuff indeed. If you have the inclination to join us for three days of fun, friendship, shared learning and insightful acumen, please stake your claim soon. It promises to be one heckuva Festivus!

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