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Random Thoughts


All we can do is the best we can do and, perhaps more importantly, we try to do it in a manner consistent with who we hope we are.

  • Lest you missed it yesterday, chatter of the NAHB vs. the S&P (with a 12-month price lag) is making the rounds today. It's pretty spooky and makes me wonder if I'm being penny wise and pound foolish (by tightening up my short-side stop to S&P 1306ish). It's a "non-issue" for now but something that I've been noodling internally. Given that I plan to balance my gamma rather than straight cover (if and when), it might be alright.

  • With that said, I've still got two legs in the fur (50% conviction on the short side).

  • "There's been a somewhat negative bias over the last 18 months on the day of the consumer confidence release. The S&P futures closed lower 14 of the last 18 release dates. The average loss for 14 down days was -0.67% and the average gain for the four up days was +0.35%." Jason Roney on today's Buzz.

  • We may have to raise our price target in AFLAC if our ducks keep aligning like this! I mean, honestly, is our community special or what? First place is the right space and to think, we've been at it for less than 21 hours. Nice work Minyans.

  • A duck of a different kind? First Horizon Bank (FHN) is taking a 4% "how's your father" due to negative mortgage banking influences.

  • Look at me, the CRB, falling fast for all to see. Our trusty commodity proxy is off another percent---and officially through our trendline--as nat gas (-3%), sugar (-2%), copper (-2%) and crude (-1.3%) weigh on the fray.

  • "The PHLX Oil Service Sector Index has broken down anew this morning as has the iShares Energy ETF (IYE). The Russell 2000 (RUT) sure is putting on a brave face, actually up on the day a moment ago, though now slipping into Red Dye. It remains a relative outperform versus the SPX in the early going." Pepe Depew on this morning's Buzz

  • And yes, I still think this "matters" although, from a trading standpoint, we always wanna see the support from our primary trading tells. As it stands, the quack count is bending (not breaking) with breadth 3:2 negative and the semis tetherballing the flat line.

  • Wasabi Minyan Steve Galbraith and thanks for the ketchup this morning. We look forward to seeing you at the December fete as we collectively ready for the new year.

  • Take a hint! My trainer blew me off again this morning at 6:00 AM. That's twice in a row and I'm starting to take it personally!

  • As go the financials, so goes the tape. We respect it on the upside and we most certainly see the other "other" side.

  • See spot run? OK, see the dollar run (DXY +50 bips off session lows). It's the "natural other side" of the commodity oddities and something we need to note as we fit the pieces together.

  • Keep a close eye on Washington Mutual (WM) as it dips another deuce. We've seen a size put buyer in the name today.

  • I got an email from a non-Minyan asking, ironically enough, if the 'Ville caters to the "haves." I told him that we take a bifurcated approach in Minyanville, trying to help folks find their way to the right side of the fork and, for those that don't, we'll do what we can to do the right thing. It's a tough world out there and something tells me that it's gonna get a whole lot tougher. All we can do is the best we can do and, perhaps more importantly, we try to do it in a manner consistent with who we hope we are.

  • Fare ye well into the bell and thanks, as always, for the Minyanship.

  • R.P.
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Position in financials, metals
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