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Random Thoughts


Sending our very best to those in Katrina's wrath

  • Sloe Gin Minx.

  • Gimme that gold!

  • Katrina. You're breaking my heart. You're shaking my confidence daily....

  • Commodities are rockin' this morning as nat gas is 17% higher, unleaded gas is up 13% and heating oil tacks on 8%. These moves have spurred the CRB to fresh '05 highs and morphed CRB 323 from resistance to technical support.

  • Alright--I'm officially shorting the USC Trojans. Too many bulls. Too much certainty. Too big of a bullseye.

  • While I'm not in the top calling business--particularly in a sector that I believe has a long-term secular wind at its back--I can't shake the vibe that this current spike will put in a short-term (2005?) high for Texas Tea.

  • "They" sold 'em again last week, yet trading types should take heart, for in Friday's verbal strategy comments we said we thought the equity markets were setting up for some kind of "throwback" trading rally. That view was/is driven by our sense that the SPX will attempt to hold above support between the "London Lows" (1183) and its 200-DMA (1195), as well as the fact that our proprietary indicators are becoming pretty oversold. Moreover, despite the fact that there is NO correlation between stock prices in the aggregate and oil, we think oil is searching for a short/intermediate-term peak, unless someone is going to blowup the oilfields. If our short-term crude oil "call" is correct, that could add another potential support mechanism to the equity markets. -- Jeff "As Good as it Gets" Saut of Raymond James

  • The people vs. Larry Flynt?

  • I've been eyeing the internals all morning for signs of slippage/traction. They're hangin' in there thus far but still seem to go down easier than they go up.

  • Too bearish? That's for you to decide. Worth reading? You betcha.

  • "Near-term support levels for the major indexes are the July 7, 2005 "London Transit System Bombing" intra-day lows: S&P 500 1183.55, DJIA 10175.4 and Nasdaq 2050.3. But we don't believe these levels are going to hold. As a result we're looking for the major indexes to test the April '05 lows -- S&P 500 1140, DJIA 10000 and Nasdaq 1900." -- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • Mountain recap from Minyan Michael Gat.

  • "If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years," said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors and author of "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?" "It's as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress."

  • Or, maybe not so much...

  • Despite the motion and movement, the financials (banks and brokers) have yet to find sponsorship.

  • Don't force, Meat, just trade.

  • Do as I say, not where I go.

  • This morning, with Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (LOW) higher on the heels of Katrina, I openly wondered if that psychology would permeate the homebuilders (as they were oversold and sitting on previous acne). It just might--for a trade--although I continue to harbor longer-term concerns for the sector.

  • I still think that Mo Clarrett could flourish in Silver and Black. He's just gotta believe it himself.

  • Maryland is officially removed from the MiM3 venue selection process.

  • If you're taking an extended weekend to focus on the important stuff, leave the ticks on the screen. It's not "really" a vacation if you spend it stressing.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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