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Random Thoughts

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Sending our very best to those in Katrina's wrath

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  • Sloe Gin Minx.

  • Gimme that gold!

  • Katrina. You're breaking my heart. You're shaking my confidence daily....

  • Commodities are rockin' this morning as nat gas is 17% higher, unleaded gas is up 13% and heating oil tacks on 8%. These moves have spurred the CRB to fresh '05 highs and morphed CRB 323 from resistance to technical support.

  • Alright--I'm officially shorting the USC Trojans. Too many bulls. Too much certainty. Too big of a bullseye.

  • While I'm not in the top calling business--particularly in a sector that I believe has a long-term secular wind at its back--I can't shake the vibe that this current spike will put in a short-term (2005?) high for Texas Tea.

  • "They" sold 'em again last week, yet trading types should take heart, for in Friday's verbal strategy comments we said we thought the equity markets were setting up for some kind of "throwback" trading rally. That view was/is driven by our sense that the SPX will attempt to hold above support between the "London Lows" (1183) and its 200-DMA (1195), as well as the fact that our proprietary indicators are becoming pretty oversold. Moreover, despite the fact that there is NO correlation between stock prices in the aggregate and oil, we think oil is searching for a short/intermediate-term peak, unless someone is going to blowup the oilfields. If our short-term crude oil "call" is correct, that could add another potential support mechanism to the equity markets. -- Jeff "As Good as it Gets" Saut of Raymond James

  • The people vs. Larry Flynt?

  • I've been eyeing the internals all morning for signs of slippage/traction. They're hangin' in there thus far but still seem to go down easier than they go up.

  • Too bearish? That's for you to decide. Worth reading? You betcha.

  • "Near-term support levels for the major indexes are the July 7, 2005 "London Transit System Bombing" intra-day lows: S&P 500 1183.55, DJIA 10175.4 and Nasdaq 2050.3. But we don't believe these levels are going to hold. As a result we're looking for the major indexes to test the April '05 lows -- S&P 500 1140, DJIA 10000 and Nasdaq 1900." -- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • Mountain recap from Minyan Michael Gat.

  • "If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years," said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors and author of "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?" "It's as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress."

  • Or, maybe not so much...

  • Despite the motion and movement, the financials (banks and brokers) have yet to find sponsorship.

  • Don't force, Meat, just trade.

  • Do as I say, not where I go.

  • This morning, with Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (LOW) higher on the heels of Katrina, I openly wondered if that psychology would permeate the homebuilders (as they were oversold and sitting on previous acne). It just might--for a trade--although I continue to harbor longer-term concerns for the sector.

  • I still think that Mo Clarrett could flourish in Silver and Black. He's just gotta believe it himself.

  • Maryland is officially removed from the MiM3 venue selection process.

  • If you're taking an extended weekend to focus on the important stuff, leave the ticks on the screen. It's not "really" a vacation if you spend it stressing.

    R.P.
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