For those with a longer horizon, BKX 114 (all-time highs in the banks) still makes a ton of sense.
- No wonder the shorts are having such a hard time making money!
- Buzz Bit (10:09 AM)
With all sorts of weather issues dominating our thought process (it's a heckuva week for the
Hamptons !), the capital markets are open for business. All in all, the early noodle is somewhat constructive--breadth is working 9:5, the homies are hanging in Matador City and the financials are nondescript.
So, all is well in the world, eh? Maybe....but maybe not so much....
I'm keeping (very) close tabs on the CRB (-1.4%) as it pokes and probes at the five year uptrend. We've discussed this ad naseum but, as it stands, equities have put it in the 'pay no mind' club. It could stay there but, for me and with my money, I'm not so sure.
With nat gas (-10%) leading the way, commodities are under fire. And if past prologue holds, that could spell trouble for stocks and the players who trade them.
It's not absolute---nothing is---but I'm hopeful that by providing this lens, your vision will allow you to make more educated decisions.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
- Holy Chloe! Jack Bauer and his crew took home best series and best actor!
- Lost in the Friday sauce was the Art Carnage in NASDAQ volatility. The VXN got slapped for 13% as traders carved up vols into the slinky summer weekend.
- Toss Thursday on your calendar as a geopolitical "catalyst" as it's the UN deadline for Iran to suspend its nuclear program or face sanctions. Iran, for their part, said that they're not concerned as the deadline is illegal.
- Dog Day Afternoon?
- Yo homie! The HGX starts the week with some green giggles. Keep an eye on the pennant, BoSox fans, as it could fade in the distance soon.
- Source of funds today? Commodity land, Natch, as the energy patch (OSX -1.5%) and metal arena (XAU -1.5%) go along for the ride.
- I coulda won this contest in 2000.
- With the CRB danglin' on the trendline (330ish), equities are trying to stand up and step out. The breadth (2:1) is supportive of that effort, as are the homies (HGX +1.2%) and the dollar (-35 bips). And S&P 1300, which has contained the Minx in sessions past, is right here, right now.
- For purposes of my metaphorical fur, I've chosen to implement a stop above S&P 1305 (which is relatively tight vs. my entry level of 1300ish). It was--and is--decent risk/reward, I'm simply togglin' the element of timing.
- For those with a longer horizon, BKX 114 (all-time highs in the banks) still makes a ton of sense.
- The real estate chatter is getting loud and louder. Please don't confuse this with the housing stocks, which are already 50% off last year's highs. As I said in Vail, the former is a lagging indicator of liquidity and therefore must be treated in a much different capacity.
- I'm meeeeeeeeeeelting.... (11:30 on the Buzz)
Settle down, Missy, it's just a little rain.
Even so, I would urge Minyans to "see" the flee in commodity land. The CRB is off a deuce (2%) and while equities are thus far immune, this is the trap door in the yellow brick road of bovine devotion.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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