Clowns to the left of me
Jokers to the right
Here I am
Stuck in the middle with you.
Freaky Friday edges along as the traders quietly sing their song. The flickering ticks are in slow motion as the critters balance constructive breadth, shruggage in the semis, jig in the biotechs (nice feel team) and a dollar that's grabbin' some greenback. The risk, as we know, is jittery critters in front of slow summer Friday, the closing Olympic ceremonies and next week's Run-RNC.
Away from that fray, the dollar is climbin' ever so steady with an eye on DXY 90. That's 'the' level on the technical radar as it's a point of repeated failure and the right shoulder of inverse dandruff. Interestingly enough, that zone will likely coincide with gold $400ish, where both the 50- and 200-day moving average will come into play. And while we're in commodity land, please note that crude Earl is pink today (slightly red).
Alotta folks are fillin' my email with questions about yesterday's dollar discussion and our vibe on a potential contra-trend rally. With so many obvious (and valid) concerns, it seems out of whack that the USD can appreciate. I agree...but, to me, it feels similar to the way equities felt (technicals and psychology) before the bullish 2003 phase. I have little doubt that, longer term, gold will be a more credible currency--I just think that folks need to get shaken out first.
The slow flow should continue through next week with lotsa folks hittin' the eject button while Dubya is in town. While the volumes will likely remain light, the potential for volatility upticks in kind (less liquidity means that a slug of merchandise will have more impact). The conspiracy theorist in me wants to tell Boo to watch his back but the simple truth is that risk remains on both sides of the trading equation. When in doubt, sit it out and don't look back. Clarity always emerges with the benefit of hindsight but looking over your shoulder is the quickest way to miss the next road sign..
Finally, before I jump back to the Buzz, I thought ye faithful might enjoy some pictures from the Butte (album one and album two). When I tell my pals that the trip vaporized my expectations, they are stunned--I rarely, if ever, am satisfied when it comes to things like this. It's a testiment to Team Minyan and, perhaps more importantly, to the folks who had the faith to attend. Thanks!
As always, I hope this finds you well!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
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