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Joker's Wild

By

Smile Child!

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Clowns to the left of me
Jokers to the right
Here I am
Stuck in the middle with you.

(Stealers Wheel)


Freaky Friday edges along as the traders quietly sing their song. The flickering ticks are in slow motion as the critters balance constructive breadth, shruggage in the semis, jig in the biotechs (nice feel team) and a dollar that's grabbin' some greenback. The risk, as we know, is jittery critters in front of slow summer Friday, the closing Olympic ceremonies and next week's Run-RNC.

Away from that fray, the dollar is climbin' ever so steady with an eye on DXY 90. That's 'the' level on the technical radar as it's a point of repeated failure and the right shoulder of inverse dandruff. Interestingly enough, that zone will likely coincide with gold $400ish, where both the 50- and 200-day moving average will come into play. And while we're in commodity land, please note that crude Earl is pink today (slightly red).

Alotta folks are fillin' my email with questions about yesterday's dollar discussion and our vibe on a potential contra-trend rally. With so many obvious (and valid) concerns, it seems out of whack that the USD can appreciate. I agree...but, to me, it feels similar to the way equities felt (technicals and psychology) before the bullish 2003 phase. I have little doubt that, longer term, gold will be a more credible currency--I just think that folks need to get shaken out first.

The slow flow should continue through next week with lotsa folks hittin' the eject button while Dubya is in town. While the volumes will likely remain light, the potential for volatility upticks in kind (less liquidity means that a slug of merchandise will have more impact). The conspiracy theorist in me wants to tell Boo to watch his back but the simple truth is that risk remains on both sides of the trading equation. When in doubt, sit it out and don't look back. Clarity always emerges with the benefit of hindsight but looking over your shoulder is the quickest way to miss the next road sign..

Finally, before I jump back to the Buzz, I thought ye faithful might enjoy some pictures from the Butte (album one and album two). When I tell my pals that the trip vaporized my expectations, they are stunned--I rarely, if ever, am satisfied when it comes to things like this. It's a testiment to Team Minyan and, perhaps more importantly, to the folks who had the faith to attend. Thanks!

As always, I hope this finds you well!

R.P.

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