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Friday Reflections

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Fare ye well Minyans!

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All I know is something like a bird within her sang
All I know she sang a little while and then flew on

(Grateful Dead)

Mindful Minyans who migrated to the mountains have been pouring positive vibes into MVHQ. And, from where I sit, I can say that the feeling is quite mutual. It's difficult to express the genuine gratitude, heartfelt humility or the profound feeling of appreciation that has emanated from Ojai. Once again, and as we ready for our requisite two-day respite, I would like to again thank everyone who participated in the upside surprise that was MIM2.

After yesterday's slithery session, we power up this Friday pup to find the world sitting on a similar field position. The stealth tightening that is crude continues to weigh on the collective mindset as we balance the notion of liquidity with the reality that purse strings are tightening. Hoofy will argue that the tape acts great given the eye-popping prices and I suppose he has a point. The potential flaw to that thinking, of course, is that he'll only know if he's wrong after the ultimate arbiter weighs in.

I'm sticking with my shtick that August will remain a bovine bummer and will continue to eye the financials as my proxy of choice. This sector encapsulates many of the issues that we've been discussing of late-the flattening yield curve, margin pressures, potential derivative smoke, oversold (twisty) stochastics and a defined technical line in the sand (BKX 100). S&P 1250ish remains a "wider" stop for Boo's Bandits but in this tough tape, I'm looking to hit for average rather than power.

A quick Random Thought before I bounce to the Buzz. My brother Lionel--Ojai revelers would know him as the fella on Em's arm-is one of New York's top architects and has a tremendous feel for real estate. He pinged me this morning to say that for the last two weeks, he's seen a steady flow of "price reductions" on the properties he's scouting. Anecdotal? Perhaps, but it's a clear softening and I wanted to share that fare with ye faithful.

Good luck today.


R.P.

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