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Minyan Mailbag: Silver & Housekeeping


We better see you next year, Deano!


Editor's Note: Minyanville is a community of people who share an interest in fiscal literacy. As perspective is an important aspect of our daily routine, we share this exchange with hopes that it adds balance to your process.

Hi Laurie,

I'm glad you and Lisa made it back to Oz safely. Obviously you guys had more fun than should be legally permitted! I hope not to miss your next foray to North America. Also, I wondered if you were willing to share any thoughts you might have with regard to
Scotto's buzz yesterday about silver potentially going to < $4/ounce? If it actually DID happen I'd be sellin' the ranch and packing up the truck! I still think we'll see it with a five handle again before aught five comes to a close.

I hope all is well with your family. Has your Mum had her surgery? How 'bout your Dad's situation? I hope all have been/will be reconciled with the best possible outcome! Peace, my friend.

Minyan Deano

Nice house, by the way! Has it sold, yet? Could I possibly ask any more questions of a personal nature?

Hi Deano,

Never be afraid of asking me any question, old mate, you will only ever get the blunt truth as I know it, no matter what it's about or who it's gonna piss off - (notwithstanding my confidentiality agreement with my former employer).

You missed out on the BEST conference/education/soiree/get together that I have ever attended, and believe me, I've been on some of the biggest piss-takes of all time. Seriously, a better bunch of people, from so many diverse backgrounds and experiences, I haven't been a part of.

To get to your points- if silver hits sub $4 then the world is screwed. At $4 we have a major deflationary depression. It can't happen while they're chucking dollars out of helicopters, IMO. Maybe this is what Professor Reamer and I were discussing at 3am at Jimmy's Bar in Ojai. Neither of us copped a black-eye so I guess we were talking baseball?!

Silver is the ultimate metal, industrial and monetary. Nothing beats silver in its industrial uses-even gold. Its properties are unique and unequalled. The day they start selling silver frypans at Woolworths is the day I see silver as a "commodity". That won't happen. As much as I reckon Scott is as smart as they come, and believe me I haven't met many smarter men in the market, his models do not take into account the physical silver market fundamentals. The past 25 years of silver prices have been depressed by inordinate supply by the US government stockpile depletion. As a by-product of lead/zinc/copper mines, for silver to be produced in such quantities as to be driven so low, there will be a glut, no a deluge of base metals hitting the market. Demand, not supply will drive the silver price. Supply is significantly lower than demand and has been for many years. Zinc and copper will be given away, free, if silver is $3 something! Demand for real silver isn't slowing, no matter the crap you hear from the Silver Users Association (don't get me started on that mob!). Silver at $4 in 2006 is the same as silver at $1.50 in 1980! If silver is sub $4, the world will be well screwed and it won't matter what you own (apart from your house and a gun)! I always say that one should be aware of the "fat-tails" but silver at $4 is a "fat tail" that won't come about without massive and severe social and financial disaster for many. Forget loading up a truck if it gets there, look after your kids.

The family is well and Mum is up and running around like a two year old filly! Her first Femoral by-pass went superbly and she is due for the other leg in a few weeks. Ya couldn't kill the old bird with an axe! Dad's legals have been sorted and he is happy with the result. The court settlements etc. are sealed and non-disclosable from my understanding. His health is much better now that particular issue has been put to rest. My brothers are all well and, quite frankly, everything is ok for a bloody change! Touch wood.

The house did sell at auction while I was at Ojai. The Sydney property market is more buoyant than we expected. It sold for more than $250k higher than the reserve price, so maybe I might get some change from the sale. If so, you have a fair idea where such funds will be directed!

We had a new addition today following the birth of a chestnut colt out of our mare-Ski Lodge- a daughter of European champion Grand Lodge. The father is High Yield, a super US horse of a few years back. Let us all hope that a bit of the "champion" tag wears off on the little one! She will be shagged in 3 weeks and the lucky dad will be a "colonial" horse called Canny Lad.

Our superstar mare is due to foal on 1 September. Her 3/4 sister is now 2nd favourite for the $5 million Melbourne Cup which is run the week of the Breeders Cup at Belmont this year. Bugger it, I wanna be at both races! I just picked the next stallion to shag our little Jactris, Flying Spur. Dunno how I'll pay the bill but we'll see.

Take care mate and missed you at Ojai

Next year for sure


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