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Point & Go Figure: Consumer Staples ETF (XLP), Altria (MO), Ambac Financial Group (ABK), Fannie Mae

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The trend is your friend... until it isn't.

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Market Overview:

The short-term Percent Above 50-Day Moving Average Indicators have reversed down from relatively high field position after relieving oversold conditions from June and July.

The S&P 500 50-day indicator is currently in Os having recently reversed down from 70%. The Nasdaq-100 50-day indicator is also in O's having recently reversed down from 66%.

According to data from Investor's Intelligence the High-Low Index for the Nasdaq is in Xs at 42% and close to a potential spread triple top breakout at 44%. The NYSE High-Low Index is also in Xs and now back above the 70% "overbought" level.

Meanwhile, the long-term index bullish percent readings are mixed. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 are all negative, according to data from Investors Intelligence. As well, the S&P 500 bullish percent has broken a spread triple bottom, the Dow has broken a double bottom at 48% and will break a spread triple bottom at 46% and the Russell 2000 has broken a spread triple bottom. The NYSE bullish percent is in X's, but still in a very bearish long-term pattern. The Nasdaq-100 bullish percent is also in Xs and shows the least risk among the current bullish percent indicators as it has only recently moved from below 30% to above 30%.

Charts of Interest:
Nasdaq-100 bullish percent
(Chart courtesy Stockcharts.com)
The NDX bullish percent is back in Xs and has recently risen above 30%.



Consumer Staples ETF (XLP)
(Chart courtesy Stockcharts.com)
On a PnF basis XLP is on a buy signal, but extended above support at 24.25 and up against the high from March 2002.



Consumer Staples ETF (XLP)
(Chart courtesy Thomson Financial)
The difficulty facing the XLP shows up better via DeMark price exhaustion techniques which show a TD-Sequential 13 sell signal likely today (in blue on chart below).



Altria (MO)

(Chart courtesy Stockcharts.com)
MO is another chart that looks A-Ok on a PnF basis, though extended above support...


Altria (MO)
(Chart courtesy Thomson Financial)
Meanwhile, DeMark price exhaustion techniques suggest trouble. A TD-Sequential sell signal registered yesterday (blue 13). A TD-combo sell signal is pending, and the possibility exists for a bearish 9-13-9 signal next Wednesday.


Ambac Financial Group (ABK)
(Chart courtesy Stockcharts.com)
ABK looks OK on a PnF basis...



Ambac Financial Group (ABK)
(Chart courtesy Thomson Financial)
A DeMark TD-Sequential sell signal registered earlier this week. Support from here is 83, then 82.11 based on the red TDST (Setup Trend line). Depending on how and IF that TDST line is broken, we will then be able to tell if the long-term PnF context based on th trendline support at 78 is to be tested.


Fannie Mae (FNM)
(Chart courtesy Stockcharts.com)
The PnF chart for FNM seems pretty clear right now. The stock has been unable to clear long-term downtrend resistance for several years. It has recently rallied back above 50, but the incomplete downside price objective remains 42 and it will take a move above 55 to change the primary trend.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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