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Random Thoughts

By

...respect the laggy drag as we edge towards our requisite two-day respite.

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  • As go the financials, so goes the tape? It's been "fail safe" (when the banks and brokers are in synch) so respect the laggy drag as we edge towards our requisite two-day respite.

  • What does it say when the star of Risky Business--and the most powerful star in the world--gets the boot? Simple, really....Risk Aversion!

  • Vuja De! Energy and metals are back in vogue as the CRB has seemingly side-stepped the technical abyss and giggled (higher) back through the 200-day moving average.

  • As a follow up to yesterday's random thought of disgust, I thought we should follow up with today's random thought of rational realization (it's all relative).

  • "Meanwhile, the market is playing a little game of twister of its own. Ns over Ss and the SPX over the RUT. To further complicate matters, today we have a DeMark TD-Sequential sell signal on the daily chart of the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) to go along with recent daily DeMark sell signals for Abbot (ABT), Pfizer (PFE), Altria (MO), Pepsi (PEP), Anheuser-Busch (BUD) and a number of other "defensive" names. The XLP also shows weekly and monthly perfected DeMark sell setups. Time to move along as risk aversion has found some other areas to rotate into." Pepe Depew on today's Buzz.

  • While this was the motivation for me to wear the bear fare, the (still) toppy stochastics, proximity of S&P 1300 (my 'cost' basis) and the conditional elements for a spark in the dark (housing leakage, compression, geopolitics)--not to mention cheap vol--has me hanging for the time being. Defined risk lets you do that and, for those with a longer time horizon, I still think BKX 114 is a wider bear birth.

  • Big Ben Bernanke, in a faux mountain mingle this morning, offered that:
    • Geopolitical concerns constrain integration.
    • Global change can boost productivity.
    • Global integration mustn't be taken for granted.
    • Current account gap is funded by capital exports.
    • Policy makers must resist protectionism.
    • Scale of global integration is 'unprecedented.'

      He did NOT discuss rates or current economic conditions but he did say that the S'mores are great!

  • With Boom Boom behind us (watch your back!), the Minx has settled into her familiar summer slither. Breadth is flat to the share, the financials are laggy still (a broken clock is right twice a day) and S&P 1300 remains directly overhead.

  • Actions speak louder than pounds? I dragged my old bones out of bed yesterday at 5:00 AM for my bi-weekly session with my personal trainer. I arrived at the gym and waited, only to learn that he blew off the session. A less secure man might read into that--what was he trying to say? Lost cause? Give it up? Have another bag of peanut M&M's....and get the large bag because you need it? I'm not sure but he will NOT get the last laugh---the next time I'm at Serendipity 3, I'm having two Frozen Hot Chocolates!

  • Buzz Bit by John Succo



    (position in hrb, cof, cfc, lend, hd, low, wm, bac, wfc)

    H&R Block (HRB) is another example of the effect the "softening" housing market is having. First COF, CFC, LEND, HD, LOW and now HRB. How long before the effects are felt by WM or even BAC or WFC? Unlike the mainstream media, my firm sees housing as the engine of liquidity for the consumer as the collateral base for debt. We see housing as the key to an imbalanced economy.

    By the way, let me clarify a statement I made on the Buzz on HRB this morning. I wrote quickly and it sounded crass. I said, "we love to see scared people crowded into a car going off a cliff."

    What I meant by that is when we have a long volatility position, the perfect scenario in generating liquidity out of a stock (volatility) is when the ownership is crowded into a stock that is having real problems. If one or two decide to aggressively sell, the stock will be more volatile and the sellers will "need" the liquidity I will provide in their selling.

  • And finally, with the summer strummer coming to an unofficial end this weekend, I would like to share some fare that I scribed on yesterday's Buzz. It might be a bit bleeding heart tree-hugger for the tougher nuts in the 'Ville but it's through the heart and from the gut. Thanks for listening and have a fantastic weekend:



    I often opine that the friction between opinions is where lessons lie and I think the last few days on the Buzz is education manifest. The difference between the 'Ville and other platforms (from what I hear) is that we're all about respect and scribe our vibe sans acrimony.

    That's an incredibly important difference and one that isn't always easy to maintain. But we do our best to stay true to that mission and, in my view, we have--which is largely due to the incredible human capital that comprises our community. We "self-regulate" in these parts and I think that keeps us moving in a positive, proactive and thought-provoking direction.

    Not a day passes when I'm not humbled by where we've come, what we are or where we're going.
    Those in Vail know what I'm talking about and anyone reading this likely has a similar sense. I think it says something when our community grows as it is during the slow summer season. Just imagine how it'll grow when we flip the switch for multiple sixes as we will soon do.

    Yes, It's exciting---from pre-school to old school and the ABC's to 401(k)'s
    . We've only just begun the journey, Minyans, so I suppose I simply wanted to take the time during the slither to thank you for all you do and being a part of who we are. Dreams are only as powerful as those who believe in them and we're humble enough to appreciate those who do.


  • R.P.
Position in financials

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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