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Random Thoughts


Thatsa lotta Randoms!


  • More smoke than a Marlboro factory parking lot!

  • Zoë walked in at 5am with a lampshade on her head but I haven't wrestled a story from her (yet).

  • "Read not to contradict and confute, not to believe and take for granted, not to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider" - Sir Francis Bacon

  • Breadth remains balanced for a second day in a row.

  • Please take a peek at the NDX and BKX charts we posted a bit ago.

  • There were an abnormal amount of police cars surrounding the Citigroup building yesterday but I heard of nothing in the news to warrant it.

  • Six minute abs.

  • From Fleck on today's Buzz (in response to a query by yours truly): I believe we can ONLY experience deflation AFTER the clowns at the Fed try to pump like crazy (which they have done for ages) AND after the dollar collapses. The looming economic weakness and even weaker stock market that I expect will most likely cause the Fed to shut up about their "blip" theory and make them contemplate how to ease again....HOWEVER should they persist in staying ever so slightly "tight" as they are now I do not believe that can save the dollar. I think the asset collapse (stocks and housing ) that looms combined with our macro imbalances will pressure the dollar even if the Fed keeps funds at 1.5% (i mean who cares about 150 bps-aussie pays over 500)...So I believe the cake is baked, the dollar is headed for a serious bashing. Once that happens and the foreigners force the Fed to behave like adults (assuming that is possible) THEN perhaps we can have deflation, but the immense pressure that would exert on our debts means that to go down that path seems hardly bullish for the dollar either...Obviously the dollar can bounce around as a function of market noise, but in the next couple years the dollar is doomed... That's how I see it, however wrong that may be.

  • The Fokker spoon!

  • I now have my AOL instant message alert set to a "cow moo." Now, every time I get pinged, Hoofy drools like Pavlov's dog.

  • Opportunities are made up easier than losses.

  • Do you want to set up your entire firm with a gratis Minyanville trial? We can do that! Contact the talented Mr. Collins for more details.

  • I'm still short Charles Woodson. Just for the record.

  • Rollin' rollin' rollin'...!

  • I've got a midday lunch meeting with our good friends from ExGen and some academics from Lehigh. Noice!

  • The homies are gettin' scolded (-2%). Please note that the 50- and 200-day intertwine at HGX 369.

  • I was watching a segment on CNN yesterday regarding the Jon Stewart show and how he is the biggest 'influence' on the 21-36 voting crowd. The story highlighted how the lines of distinction between media and entertainment are being blurred and that people want to be amused as they get their news. That concept has a familiar ring to it...?

  • This in from Snoop Tone... yesterday he was on CNBC talking about close proximity to a peak in Oil prices and bump up in bond yields. He just pinged me because he doesn't have tv on in his office, but noted when looking today that oil prices are scrolling in two different areas on the CNBC ticker. When interest is hot enough to have them do that, it is likely another sign of a peak. He notes that he wished he caught it better when CNBC had the Russell 2K doing same thing in Jan.

  • The gold scold!

  • Not for the Meeker!

  • Is it me or did the summer fly by? It seems like just yesterday that I had a full Mornin' Cup of Jo motivational calendar on my desk!

  • The fear of missing replaced the fear of losing in a hurry, eh?

  • Yanks-Cards?

  • But it's temporary!

  • A little Wookie nookie?

  • A transit system police officer in Washington, DC arrested, handcuffed and searched Stephanie Willett, 45, an EPA scientist, detaining her at a police station for about three hours. Her offense was finishing up the chewing of her Pay Day candy bar inside a Metrorail station, in violation of the no-eating rule. Transit officials pointed out that Willett had been warned by the officer a minute before not to enter the station while eating the candy bar, but she thought if it was completely in her mouth as she walked in, she was safe. [Washington Post] (And yes--I am tremendously grateful that no such law exists in NYC).

  • Want Fleck? You can read him every day on his excellent website.

  • I know some filthy rich people who are miserable from dusk till dawn and starving artists who are the happiest cats around. What does that tell ya?

  • Dampier signs for $73 beans. Dampier?!?

  • Minyans in Jamaica? :-x

  • Do the metals grab some traction into the Republican Nat'l Convention?

  • Can I grab a flight outa town into the Republican Nat'l Convention?

  • From Jason Goepfert on the Buzz: A note of caution...the intraday put/call ratio I watch is now sitting at its lowest levels since 1/16, 3/2, 3/20, 7/20 this year, all close to Naz peaks. Combined with negative VXN/NDX divergences and a spurt in odd lot purchases over the past week (a contrary sign), the evidence is adding up that sustained upside is going to get more difficult in the short-term. I'm still optimistic on the longer-term prospects, but things are looking more and more "iffy" over the next few days/week.

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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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