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Random Thoughts


The financials, as a tell, work best when both elements are pointing in the same direction.

  • Again, and to restate the less-than-obvious, I don't think the housing data was the cause for pause yesterday but IF the homebuilders can rally today, it might shift/shape psychology.

  • It has come to our attention that Billy Meehan, MV editor extraordinaire, is traveling to Greece tonight. This we know. What we didn't know--until now--is that he'll be traveling with three young lovelies. That's right--Billy and thee females frolicking in the Greek Islands. Pops would indeed be proud!

  • For the rest of us, we'll be counting the days until the post-Labor day fray. I've gotten a LOT of emails from folks who are certain that any and all volatility will wait until we arrive back in our September turrets. Two thoughts---one, expect the unexpected and two, the fact that so many players are gonna be out actually supports the notion of increased volatility.

  • I guess that's evident in other ways. Which ways? Glad you asked! Check out this Buzz from Senor Succo:

    "The market is selling September options in just about every name. September options are as cheap as any options I have seen. Of course, nothing will happen in the markets at least through September. At least that is what the sellers are saying. It apparently is free money. Just one example is General Motors (GM). I sold September paper just last week at 45 implied volatility. I am buying it back today at 33. I could give you 70 other examples. This ties into the correlation comments I made yesterday. I will talk more about that later. I have seen this before. These cheap options are like kindling. If stocks start to move (the match) before September expiration I think it could get very ugly." (position in GM)

  • We're in deep noodle mode regarding a potential MIM3.5 (Minyans in Manhattan ) into year-end. The preliminary discussions involve an afternoon of panels (a la Vail--just longer!) followed by a snazzy and jazzy party at night. 100% of the net proceeds would benefit The Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education as we look to tie up 2006 with a nod towards the important stuff.

  • Mucho White Light to Joan Dietzman of the Cynthia Dietzmann Dietzmann's. We're all behind you and sending you strong energy.

  • He Said-She Said? Keep an eye on those trannies (-1%) as they drift low and lower following the probe at TRAN 4400.

  • And keep an eye on the brokers as well (XBD -1.3%) as another potential fly in the try. The money center banks, however, remain sticky, green and full of steam. The financials, as a tell, work best when both elements are pointing in the same direction.

  • I'm tellin' you baby, this sorta thing ain't my bag!

  • I just got off the horn with my buddy Herb Greenberg (who reserved his spot at a Succofest in October). We were discussing the cost-cutting banter on the Buzz yesterday. He says (and I know) that he's been on that point for a while but folks simply don't want to hear it. As we both agreed, there will come a time when they wish they did.

  • I'm still "legged out" on a slew of my option rolls (as I bought some out-month premium and will look to sell the front month in kind) but can always trade around that if necessary.

  • Why don't you just tell me the name of the movie you'd like to see?

  • Big Papi just asked me how long I can stay in the bear costume. I told him that I tend to frame my risk via time, price or both. As it stands, I have a BKX 114 stop on the fur but that's drifting outside my comfort zone (from a risk management standpoint). I may tighten it to above S&P 1300ish and/or CRB 338ish.

  • Maybe I'm just being sensitive but I think this is a disgusting disgrace.

  • "New home sales were weak but probably better than most feared. Median prices were down again, and are now 10% below April levels, though that number does jump around quite a bit. Minyan Sean M. rightly notes that things might get quite a bit worse for the homies in the August and September reports, as many of them close their fiscal years in September and they will be obliged to fire sell their spec inventory. With the exception of whatever vibes might emanate from Boom Boom's Jackson Hole conclave, the econ calendar is now empty until 8/31, when a barrage of data will start. As things get thin and thinner, Minyans might wanna be careful and carefuller." Fil Zucchi on today's Buzz.

  • Fare ye well into the bell, Minyans, and keep it real.

  • R.P.
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