By Todd Harrison Aug 24, 2005 8:40 am
I wanna see you dance again....
Come a little bit closer
Hear what I have to say
Just like children sleepin'
We could dream this night away
And so it is. MiM2 begins to drift into the realm of our subconscious and we again turn our attention to the ever-present Minx. The transition is a cacophony of mixed emotions as we balance the beauty of memories past with the excitement of a journey that has yet to begin. I'll again thank everyone who made it possible and welcome those who are joining us for the very first time.
I covered alotta bases during my Ojai keynote and won't waste your valuable morning time rehashing that content. I will offer my humble understanding that our future script has yet to be written and therein lies our interpretive task at hand. When I scribed my mountain vibe, the clearest "eyes" that I shared was something that I've been discussing for a few years: that energy and metals would emerge as the next-gen tech and financials. It's been a winning thought, we know, but it's no longer a stealth vibe in trading circles.
Widespread acceptance is a double edged sword but that's the blade that the Clampetts must shave with. I had a slew of conversations in the Ojai foothills and it's clear that energy has become the most popular kid in the investing class. To be clear, I think we've got a ways to go in this secular shift (energy will again assume the top weighting in the S&P), but before that happens, chances are that he'll have to face spates of unpopularity in the weeks and months ahead.
It's impossible to have this discussion without placing it in the proper context. Scott Reamer shared some fantastic vibes on the virtues of time preference and, as I've long said, mapping a proper horizon is an integral aspect of any lucid financial decision. In a nutshell, my sense is that the energy bull is in the early innings but Boo's Bandits will pitch a few innings of shutout ball and shake the confidence of the now boisterous crowd.
And, as long as we're talkin' Reamer (who is as sharp a cookie as I've come across), I will offer that his view of approaching deflation has heretofore quelled my aggressiveness when it comes to my metal accumulation. If, in fact, he's correct in his view-which is one of the caveats I mapped out in my keynote-asset classes will deflate as the grubby greenback grasps at respect. That's a risk and, as we strive to "see" both sides of every trade, it warrants a discussion.
I've been ginger in my precious nibbles-as opposed to Mary Ann-but will continue to pick at the metals with three thoughts in mind. 1) I will likely have an opportunity to make cheaper purchases (remember, gold was $350 and silver was $5ish a few years back) 2) My time horizon (for this schnitzel) is 10 years out and 3) These are holdings that I view as a hedge against further (and eventual) dollar devaluation.
Remember, I have a bifurcated approach to my book-short-term stuff and longer-term positioning-so please keep that in mind when we have these discussions. With regard to the broader tape, I'm still of the "summer bovine bummer" mindset and will watch S&P 1220 and BKX 100 as Boo's nearest upside guides.
Shakin' off some jet lag and heading down for a second cup of Jo. I'll see YOU on the Buzz and I sincerely hope that you have a fine session.
Good luck today.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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