Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Lose Ground
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Editor's Note - MV News
Chicos (CHS) reports 2Q EPS of $0.30 inline on revs of $405.0 mln. The company guides 3Q EPS to $0.26-$0.28 vs. $0.32 cons and Q4 EPS to $0.25-$0.27.
Bell Buzz - Todd Harrison - 3:54 PM
- The Matador City Anthem?
- With a respectful nod to the sticky green backs (as go the financials...), I'm gonna hop to Succofest with both legs ensconced in my metaphorical fur (50% conviction on the short-side). John always smiles when he sees me in the bear costume.
- The CRB? For those watching at home, it's hanging 60 bips lower (below the 200-day but above the multiyear trendline).
- Before we circle Minyans in Maui (which is a snazzy way of saying "happy hour with Toddo and Fleck"), we're gonna try and pull off MIM3.5 (Minyans in Manhattan) to benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation. At the end of the day, giving back is good for all of us.
- And yes, if we get the band (macro panel) back together (as I hope), I promise that we'll have plenty of time for all kinds of chime.
- I'm off like a prom dress, Minyans---I'll see YOU tomorrow. May peace be with you.
Position in financials
Get a Grip - Rod David - 11:59 AM
Tuesday's outside-day ended back under Monday's S&P highs, and certainly under the morning's highs. But no accumulation there, and no signal of impending doom. Wednesday's opening surge failed anyway. Still no accumulation, but still no signal of impending doom, either.
In other words, lower prices at this stage of the pattern are a function of fewer buyers, and not of more sellers. Which is interesting to note, since S&Ps continued falling today through mid-morning, and to the lowest level since last Wednesday.
This still isn't accumulation, and a close today under the SPX 1294 (ESu 1297'00) area would signal that the past week's lack of accumulation was actually distribution. Otherwise, intraday probes of lower lows would only be a correction of last week's breakout.
A few of my favorite things... - Vitaliy Katsenelson - 11:45 AM
My favorite no revenue growth, leverage the balance sheet stock buyback story is Westwood One (WON). This company has not seen real revenue growth since...I don't have that many fingers on my right hand.
It has been buying back stock at 40, 30, 20, 15 times earnings at the same time it has leveraged its balance sheet to the wazoo. The hardest part for any management team is to say: we cannot grow, let's manage the company as a no growth, dividend paying, cash flow maximizing enterprise. I have yet to see a management team do that. Most managers set unrealistic growth goals - which they fail to achieve, destroying shareholder capital in the process, or go on an acquisition spree to "buy" growth - which most of the time results in a distraction of shareholder capital as well.
Inside Existing Home Sales - Fil Zucchi - 10:36 AM
No sense obsessing over the nuances of the existing home sales - the gist of it is that they confirm that housing market transactions relative to supply are crashing, and prices are going to be next.
I continue to think that piling onto the darkside of most homies at these prices is not an attractive trade and I prefer to look into areas of likely collateral damage, though admittedly I have not found many that are not already mighty crowded.
With regards to when prices might collapse, I'll anecdotally offer that this past weekend I saw the first advertisement for sales of spec homes for "any reasonable offer" courtesy of Technical Olympic USA (TOA). Stay tuned Minyans.
For Whom the Bell Tolls... - Herb Greenberg - 10:23 AM
To my pal Toddo's comments regarding my CNBC comments regarding Toll -- that news is always best at the top and worst at the bottom: I get your point, precisely. However, the difference this time, my friend, is that Toll is not telling you the worst is over. Even he is saying he can't tell you how bad it will get. That's what I meant by he is telling you how bad it is.
Too bad, from a credibility standpoint, that he was never skeptical enough that the boom, at its height, could end.
Compare that with the folks at, say, P.F. Chang's (PFCB), who would always agree as their business was booming that they were, in fact, in the restaurant business -- among the hardest and most fickle of all businesses. To suggest anything but unpredictability, even they agreed in the heyday, would be foolhardy. That's why if you go back and check their press releases versus, say, Panera (PNRA), P.F. Chang looks princely. Its press releases tended to stick with numbers with little in the way of hyperbole. All corporate cheerleaders, especially when their businesses are doing well, might learn from it.
I am no fundamental analyst, but... - John Succo - 9:11 AM
The boob tube is describing National Semiconductor's (NSM) report as "good" because gross margins are intact even though revenue guidance was lowered by the company.
I have described this many times. A good deal of earnings being reported by companies is due to cost cutting. There is only so much cost cutting that can be done; there is a limit. The more cost cutting done, the closer to the end you are (deductive).
Revenues are the life blood of a company. When revenues start to decline that is a real signal.
I mention this emphatically because so much of it is going on and down the road it will come home to roost on that one earnings report where revenues are still declining yet cost cutting is over.
What you need to know... - Jon Doctor J Najarian - 8:06 AM
Iran Offers Negotiations, Oil Slips – Iran says they are ready for "serious talks", as opposed to what the French offered, which were talks hosted by Jerry Lewis! But seriously (just like wants), the suggestion of any form of negotiations with has Light Sweet crude trading down $0.58 to $72.52 and Brent down $0.80.
World's Largest Miner's Profits top $10.45 Billion - BHP Billiton (BHP) said fiscal year to June 30 net profit rose 63.4% which was in line with analyst estimates, on surging commodity prices and record production in aluminum, copper, iron ore, nickel and natural gas. Revenue rose 25.5% to $39.099 billion.
Ford (F) Interested If GM/Nissan Talks Fail – Give Bill Ford Jr. some credit here, as he has spoken with Carlos Ghosn the chief executive of Renault and Nissan, saying Ford was interested in joining the Renault-Nissan alliance if talks with General Motors don't work out!
Position in F
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