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Random Thoughts


Just trying to keep it balanced and show both sides of the ride.

  • If you missed Fil "my pockets" Zucchi's excellent real estate noodle, please give it a read. I'll humbly offer that it's one of his best scribes to date.

  • Fil touched on an important, long-held Minyanville process--the three phases of a trading move: Denial, Migration and Panic. We haven't discussed it in quite some time but it's food for thought as we chew through the dew.

  • As I was looking for that link, I got lost in a moment of reminiscence. I mean, jeez--October, 2002? We've been doing this Minyan thang for quite some time.

  • Ruh Roh! According to Bloomberg, citing Mehr News, Iran will make an announcement of a nuclear breakthrough that will confirm Iran's position as a "nuclear country."

  • Consistent with my opening vibe, we're at "schvitz or get off the spot" levels in the asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation discussion. There are two sides to this trade, Minyans, please see them both.

  • Why today's crimson try? I "see" the homies (-2%) but I don't think the broader supply is about existing home sales. More likely, it's a confluence of factors (including the evaporation of post-expiration influences and concerns over Iran's nuclear capability). The market is an amalgamation of information and influences. That's why we assimilate as we do--there's a lot to take in.

  • I agree (for the most part) with much of the banter on today's Buzz. I will simply remind folks that 1) timing is often elusive and 2) a lower dollar could lead to higher asset class prices (and a rally in the stock market). Just trying to keep it balanced and show both sides of the ride.

  • Yes, I also paused when, after being asked what Iraq had to do with the attacks on 9/11, President Bush quickly said "Nothing!" While most U.S citizens no longer see a tie between the two, Dubya clearly harnessed the collective psychology in 2001 to garner support for the invasion. And as much as that was then and this is now, revisionist history is little solace for families of the brave men and women who continue to fight in that war.

  • Take this at face value as I'm putting on my devil's advocate hat. My pal Herb Greenberg said on CNBC this morning to "Listen to Bob Toll--he's telling you things are really bad in housing." True dat, Herb. But he also told us that things were REALLY GOOD at the top. This is yet another flaw of fundamental analysis--as a discounting mechanism, the news is always best at the top and worst at the bottom. And no, I don't think the worst for housing is behind us. I just think that the initial "POP" may be baked in the cake after the 2 for 1 organic splits.

  • "The markets have been incredibly quiet this week. How quiet? 1) Bond futures now have five days in a row where the day's range (in ticks) was less than or equal to the prior day's range. This is an extremely rare occurrence and almost always saw range expansion the following day. 2) The four day range in the Dow Jones is just 0.75%, marking one of the smallest such ranges over the last twenty years." Professor Jason Roney on today's Buzz (8:45 AM).

  • I must be getting old. I remember a time when Mel Gibson and Tom Cruise were role models and parents were proud to have a picture of their child with Michael Jackson.

  • As I just told Big Papi, the reaction to news is more important than news itself but we must always remember to respect--no defer to--the price action.

  • I'm in the midst of "rolling" some of my Autumn piggy puts (to "out-months") as September is a bit "gun to the head," particularly with Labor Day looming. I'm trying to "leg the trade," which is sometimes dangerous. That's alright, like Austin , "danger" is my middle name.

  • If Minyanville were a movie, these would be the bad guys.

  • I was trying to quote Psycho Killer by The Talking Heads this morning and realized that it might be the toughest song I've ever tried to quote. I mean, honestly..."Psycho Killer, Qu'est-ce que c'est, fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa far better. Run run run run run run run away...?"

  • A few new Minyans have expressed that they're having trouble with my lingo. I will simply say "gelieve te controleren het minyanvillewoordenboek " (Which, obviously, is Dutch for "please check out the Minyanville dictionary."

  • Have a good Hump Minyans, we're half way through the week.

  • R.P.
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