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Toddo's Main Points



Todd Harrison
Trading Style: How to Approach an Increasingly Difficult Market

  • Focus
    • Handful of assets fending for attention
      • Commodities
      • Currencies
      • Bond Market
      • Real Estate
      • Minx
  • Defining Time Horizon
    • 4 Distinct frames in the market: cycles, phases, trends, nuances
    • S&P 500 - Past 10 Years
      • In my view, the 2003 action is a bullish phase within the early innings of a multiyear bear
      • The single biggest decision you make is the definition of your time horizon
  • Trading Metrics
    • Fundamentals
      • Management, cash flows, growth, valuation
    • Technicals
    • Psychology
      • Sentiment, investor perception, teletubbies, elections, geopolitical events
    • Structural - Domino Effect?
      • Leverage, foreign ownership of U.S. treasuries, derivative maze, liquidity, dollar, crude
  • Money Supply
    • Between January 1, 1999 and July 1, 2004, M2 is up 43% and M3 up 53%
  • U.S. Dollar Weakness
    • Since the beginning of 2002, the dollar is off 27%
      • $1.00 two and a half years ago is worth $0.73 today
  • Tactical Approach - Unique for Each Minyan
    • Develop a Roadmap
      • Identify time horizon and understand risk profile
        • Function of age, risk tolerance
      • What are your investment objectives? (college savings, retirement, etc.)
      • Incorporate the above into a cohesive trading style
    • Follow a Roadmap
      • Incorporate daily tells (breadth, financials, semis, news)
      • Build positions, depending on the tape
      • Remain adaptive: markets change and so should you
      • Flow, Intramarket/intermarket movements
  • Ten Trading Commandments
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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