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Random Thoughts

By

The next few weeks will remain thin as players play in the last weeks of summer.

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  • The 3% silver sass, 2% gold giggle and gains from coffee to copper to heating oil have nudged the all-important CRB index 40 little bips higher. The 200-day moving average (337ish) becomes the first technical test for this newfound zest although I woulda thought that, given the action in the underlying components, the commodity proxy would have sported a bigger smile.

  • As we watch the dollar drip to session lows (-75 bips), it "feels" like a reflation effort is underway. My eyes are fixed on equity breadth (NYSE 2:1 negative) while my posture, as communicated this morning, thus far remains constant.

  • There will be no celebrating in the Bronx . If Yankee fans haven't learned that lesson yet, they've got selective memory with regards to the Red Sox rivalry. Still....noice work fellas.

  • SKY News reported this morning (citing the AP) that Iran is refusing to allow UN inspectors access to an underground nuclear site.

  • "...Those who attended MIM3 would have had the $622 target in mind as to where I was looking for the pullback to get "in." I think we just saw it....opinion only as always. Time horizon is three years, not tomorrow, please remember." Laurie McGuirk on today's Buzz (position in gold and silver).

  • Bank of America's Tom McManus lowered his equity weighting in asset allocation to 55% from 60% and raised cash to 25% from 20%, with bonds remaining 20% this morning. I've known Tom for a long time (we used to work on the same Morgan derivative desk) and I think he's one of the better thinkers out there.

  • Indecent Proposal?

  • We've added a slew of new features to the Buzz & Banter. Please click on "preferences" on the bottom of your Buzz to customize your Minyanville experience. And stay tuned---we've only just begun to transform our vision into an actionable reality!

  • "Despite the likelihood of a rest in the equity market (+6.4% since June 13th low), we remain bullish with a 2007 target on the S&P 500 of over 1500. Our target assumes a midpoint 2007 operating earnings estimate of $91 and multiple expansion to 17x, which is what took place in the first year following a Fed peak in rates in the last mid-cycle environment. In 1995, the SPX multiple expanded from 15x to 16.9x. It is also important to note that despite a near recession by the second quarter of 1995, the S&P 500 operating earnings were up 21% in 1995." Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities

  • The other side of that trade, of course, is multiple contraction (the fatal flaw of fundamental analysis).

  • I think it's time for a new publicist.

  • What if we moved MVHQ to a ranch in the midwest and hosted Minyans in the Mountains year-round? It could be a theme park of fiscal literacy with all sorts of activities scheduled throughout the year. (No Farley, there will be no Hezbollah Paintball).

  • Note Lowe and Lower (LOW) as it hiccups a nickel (5%).

  • The next few weeks will remain thin as players play in the last weeks of summer. Factor that into your stylistic approach (wider 'scales' or smaller size) if you're gonna be doggin' it out.

  • Take this with a grain of salt but the S&P and NDX stochastics have "crossed" negatively from a somewhat toppy level. They're not timers but they're worth watching.

  • Mission accomplished? (circa 2003)

  • TRAN 4400? It was fun while it lasted as the trannies failed at our aforementioned technical trouble zone.

  • Maybe it's me but I have no interest in watching the five year anniversary documentaries on 9/11. I watched the original and that was more than enough for these old eyes.

  • We eyed S&P 1300 (TRAN 4400) as the intuitive beacons in the flight last week and now that we've been there, done that, I'm watching the price action with renewed interest. I would be entirely more comfy in the bear suit if the money centers were under distribution (for obvious reasons), but I'm trying to practice some proactive patience as it all unfolds. Setting stops allows you to do that sans emotion and that's where I'm currently at.

  • Deep breath, Minyans, and remember that boredom isn't an actionable catalyst. As someone who used to push and press for big risk daily, take me at my word--the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability.



R.P.

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Positions in financials, metals
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