I Got Next!
By Todd Harrison Aug 20, 2003 8:33 am
Leave it all on the court!
Good morning and welcome to the full court press. With yesterday's scribbly dribble fresh in our minds, I grabbed the troops to go play some hoops . As we stretched and waited for our game, the sideline chatter was more of the same. Hoofy (standing tall), Boo (about to brawl), Sammy (content to crawl), Snapper (climbing the wall) and Daisy (awaiting a call) surrounded me for a pre-game huddle. The pep talk went a little like this:
Hoofy: I'll play forward, being that it's such a natural position for me!
Boo: (wearing his LeBron headband): Are you sure you don't wanna play guard? It seems to me that a little defense may be the play of the day. With Hewlett Packard (HPQ:NYSE) pooping the bed and the weekly Institutional Investor bull/bear survey skewing further to the right (bulls 55.1 vs. 52, bears 18.4 vs. 19), it seems as if the Minx may be ripe for a gripe.
Snapper: Is this the Classic Sports Network? It seems that every week, we see the same game from you, Boo. Come on now...I know you don't care, bear, but the Industrials and Nazz are at 16 month highs. Sixteen months!
Sammy: Lets be fair, now. That's like me saying that the bulls were all through last October 'cause the market was at five year lows. People have a tendency to focus on risk when the market is down and opportunity when it's up and that's backwards.
Hoofy: True, but that doesn't mean there aren't opportunities at these levels. Look at the Russell 2000 and the trannies, they both look splendid on a chart. And, if the NDX pushes through 1320, it's the same kinda thing. Don't even get me started on S&P 1020, if and when....oofa!
Boo: We all see the levels, Hoofs, I mean...jeez, that's all anybody is talking about these days! But I wanna scratch below the surface a little. Did you see Pepe Depew's salient article on News & Views last night? It was a good visualization of the current field position.
Daisy: (looking fine in her spandex) Is this where you're gonna start your shpiel again? (puts her hoofs to her face) "Oh no, the bubble trouble is coming!" You're such a girly girl!
Hoofy: Don't insult the female Minyans, Daisy!
Sammy: Alrightee then, let's chill on the name calling. I'd rather focus on the Hump Day levels and the task at hand. Yesterday, SPY 101 provided a couple of good fade opportunities and some of the more active Minyans are focusing on that as an inflection point. NDX 1300-1320 remains important resistance as it's the yearly highs for the four-letter freaks. On the downside, the 50-days (S&P 990, NDX 1247) will provide the first discernable support if the slip grips.
Snapper: Why does it seem that every time the crowd yells "breakout!" we sell off and when chicken BooBoo screams "I'm melting" we rally? Talk about a summer hummer!
Sammy: Just stay on your toes...or paws...or hoofs...or claws...and watch our trusty tells. The financials have been lethargic of late and I continue to believe that they hold the key. It seems that tech will take a rest and the ability of the S's to step up (led by the banks) should be telling (S's over N's?). Peripheral guides will include the breadth, the semis (SOX 400 is now support), retail (consumer proxy), the biotechs and internets (sentiment proxy) and housing (on the back of the data).
Boo: Just remember that it aint over till it's over, guys, and there's plenty of time left on the clock.
The basketball court cleared and the winning five looked at our team in disbelief. As we walked out to match up, I glanced around and made eye contact with each member of the menagerie. The time for talk was over and the time for action was upon us. I had no doubt we would emerge victorious. We were, after all, in a zone.
Good luck today.
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