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Tuesday Afternoon and the Moody Blues


"Car dealers stopped Haggling years ago... Anyone remember Saturn?"

  • Maybe it takes the perspective earned by spending an evening nursing a new-born and a sheepish yellow Labrador to appreciate the position of Nurse Ratched. "Judge not lest yee have spent a sleepless night dispensing pills, food and generally tending to non-responsive patients of varying temperments".

  • I still think this rally was largely catalyzed by a sort of "is that all they got?!" increased appetite for risk after the London bombings. Remember, the S&P 500 was down in the teens, to the mid-1180's, in the pre-market of July 7th.

The weak hands got flushed. Those betting on a collapse got flipped. Those buying into the "bullish bet bullet points" in the above-linked column are making bank.

That doesn't mean it can't keep going. Though I'm trimming longs, I wouldn't short Google (GOOG) here with Collins' money.

  • Is anyone else getting excited to see Palmero and Brady Anderson suiting up for the 2010 Orioles old-timer's game? Just to get Collins in front of the Orioles' Corruption Curve (to lessen his shock and disappointment at these things): Cal Ripken actually platooned with his evil-twin, Al Ripken, throughout his consecutive games played streak.

Also, Jim Palmer? Suffice it to say: socks.

  • DirecTV (DTV) is going to tear TiVO (TIVO) a new one, by way of praising their new DVR from NDS Group (NNDS) tomorrow. Considering the Family Matters being exposed in the Murdoch household, and the incenstuous relations between NDS and DTV, the issue of "self-dealing at shareholder's expense" will likely arise.

Remember, DTV is, in effect, swapping out nearly 15% of their user base boxes in order to get them to switch to NDS. That's a huge cash outlay for a co where it's always about cashflow and sub-ads (never about EPS). That expense is going to need to be justified and, again, it's going to be colored by the Murdoch affairs.

  • In terms of DTV's stock itself, going into the conference call, the best thing about it, from my perspective, is that no one is expecting very big things.

That's not an investment thesis, especially when the bears are more in the "dead money" camp than leaning into DTV on the shortside. I've been long the stock in the past but have only a "state of the industry" interest in the stock and the conference call (which I'll comment on in this space).

  • As you age you also have to rethink the position of the principal in The Breakfast Club, from where I'm sitting.

  • The retailers sporting a lotta 52-week highs going into the release of July sales, traditionally a weak (though not regarded as "meaningful" month). Thursday morning is put-up or shuddup day for these guys... I mean, can Abercrombie (ANF) really continue posting 30%+ SSS? Can anyone?
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Position in TIVO

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