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Sittin' Stills


Hey Toddo--why can't you get CSN to play at MiM2?


Friday evening, Sunday in the afternoon
What have you got to lose?
Tuesday mornin', please be gone I'm tired of you.
What have you got to lose?

(Stephen Still)

Good morning and welcome back to the quiet hack. A new month arrived with a spate of fresh hope but we couldn't climb up the slippery slope. The bulls will maintain that we're biding our time but the window was there and they still couldn't climb. "If this was the best we could do with new flows," said Boo to his crew as he surveyed the close, "I've gotta think that the nervousness grows as we edge through the muck and scrunch up our nose." Is Boo staring at the action too much or will he soon regain his magical touch? It's turnaround Tuesday, come on and come all as we ready anew for a new critter brawl.

One of the challenges in scribing a daily vibe is enduring slow slithery sessions like yesterday. While there were pockets of action-the energy patch stands out-the overall vibe was moot and muted. There's a fine line between reading between the lines and seeing what you wanna see (risk rationalization) and therein lies the art to the trading science. We power up the Tuesday pup with our field position-and market thoughts-much the same as they were yesterday.

I will offer that my internal debate continues to rage as we edge through 2005. While the mainstay averages have gone nowhere fast, it's hard not to respect the minxy resilience. The bovine bravado has shrugged off a GM debt downgrade, terrorist bombings and a slew of high profile misses while marching up this latest leg. The reaction to news has always been a great trading guide and, thus far, the Matador Crowd has barely blinked in the face of these headwinds.

There is risk, of course, to the "go along while getting long" routine, a caveat that only rears its head after the fact. That, in a nutshell, is the difference between respecting the price action and deferring to it. The former will keep you in the game as you await your pitch while the latter will erase your catalyst as a function of price. It's a very fine line, I know, but walking it may very well dictate the path of profitability.

We power up this sleepy pup to find the overseas markets firm, the dollar probing multiple July lows and stateside futures a tad higher. Of note yesterday, on top of the rude crude or perhaps as a function of it, the CRB broke out (through 313). That raises a question that I've been struggling with for some time-are commodities a proxy for global liquidity's rising tide (at the expense of the dollar) or will higher input prices ultimately crunch corporate profit margins? The answer is likely yes, with time and price serving as the ultimate arbiters of that debate.

Good luck today.

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