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Random Thoughts


Nazz breadth is still 2:1 negative while NYSE issues are 3:2 negative.


  • Sentiment indicators, while "closer" to oversold readings in the short-term, are far from oversold using more conventional measures.

  • Are you A.D.D (read: A Debbie Downer?)

  • Citigroup (C:NYSE), in addition to being THE financial proxy, has also become a de-facto sentiment gauge on the terror warnings. It's trying to edge higher as we speak (write).

  • From the always excellent Phil "my pockets" Erlanger and his insightful morning missive: "Seasonally, August comes in like a lion, but mostly peters out by month's end. The bulls need to show their stuff now. If there is no meaningful rally from here over the next two weeks, September could be turbulent (translation -- a wipe out.)"

  • Collins has Mary Kate and Ashley screensavers. I kid you not.

  • Emerson, Lake and Fokker?

  • Minyan Jeff Saut who, in my opinion is as good as it gets, remains "guardedly bullish on a tactical trading basis. He cites the Lowry's short-term trading index and believes we're more likely to see the selling "dry up" than reach a climax. His intermediate view is still "rangey" and I know he harbors some long-term concerns but, as the big picture is made up of a series of little pictures, I wanted to pass along his wise words to ye faithful.

  • Is Federer/Roddick the next great tennis rivalry?

  • Nomar no more.

  • 17 days left until the inaugural Minyans in the Mountains zesty 'fest. We're chock full of topics, outdoor activities and fine vibes. In addition, each attendee will receive a special welcome package that includes the first ever Minyanville DVD!

  • Lotsa relative volume in the ETF's today.

  • There is chatter getting around the trading desks that, following the weekend terror alerts, Dubya's standing has improved on the electronic markets that track such things (there are two notable 'exchanges' that 'trade' the elections--Bush was 'losing' in both and is now marginally ahead). As there has been a positive correlation between his reelection prospects and the S&P over the last few months, we thought it warranted a mention.

  • A GSE gets scooped!

  • The VXO (volatility index) is 3% higher while the VXN (Nazz vol) and QQV (QQQ vol) are up 6% and 9% respectively.

  • I awoke this morning to find the metals up less than expected and equity futures down less than expected. That typically leads to moves in the opposite direction (as demand/supply "hiding" under/over the market is revealed). Indeed, the metals are now down on the day while stocks are higher (thus far) than previously indicated.

  • All the news that's fit to trade.

  • Slogars, Scotto, Slogars!

  • Crude is down a measly 50 bips.

  • I am catching a rooster early flight to the left coast tomorrow and returning on the red eye Wednesday evening. So, for purposes of the 'Ville, I'll be out of radio contact for two sessions as I tend to some potentially monstrous Minyanville meetings. I leave the Gazette in the most capable hands of my fellow professors and wish ye faithful a smooth and peaceful ride.

  • Most of my intermediate-term stochastics, while still more bullish than bearish, are no longer twisty.

  • Terror tension will continue through the election and beyond. Factor the increased risk (that was there before this new warning) into your profile but don't let it dominate your mindset.

  • Take care of the minutes and the hours will take care of themselves

  • Are you ready for some football?

  • There's nothing wrong with a little Zeppelin on our time.

  • Retail traded relatively firm outa the gate and is eyeing 200-day resistance above.

  • The recent retest of the '04 lows had a positive divergence (trannies) and a negative divergence (VXO).

  • I saw the Manchurian Candidate yesterday. Surreal in alotta ways.

  • Mind if we dance with yo dates?

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