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Quick Thoughts on Risk

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Approach:

Combination of fundamental and technical analysis based on empirical time series, probabilistic distributions and performance attribution in order to determine favorable return, risk, and correlation in discrete signals. Effort runs across broad differentiated data sets: econometric; fixed income; earnings; capital markets; insider etc.

Key themes:

- Deep dive analysis can provide intriguing market efficiency opportunities.
- The biggest opportunities are where the least are familiar.

Market Outlook:

- Reasonably strong - although corporate earnings growth will ultimately revert to historical levels, companies are in their best shape ever. Strong econometric underlying fundamentals and vigilant Fed could very well lead equities higher. I see an increased likelihood that the yield curve will invert in the next 12-18 months. Expect sector leadership to rotate away from energy and materials and into financials and information technology.

Thoughts on Controlling Risk and Staying the Game:

- Be disciplined and completely transparent in your approach to risk. Discuss risk and ways to mitigate constantly and remember that return is only half the equation.


If I could give one piece of advice:

-Do your homework.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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