More Random Thoughts!
By Marcus Laun Aug 19, 2003 2:30 pm
I thought RED bank was in New Joisy?
- Bonds are wippin' higher but the banks are heavy Betty's. Hmm...
- Ferris Whitney vs. Angel Bright. Splendid!
- The Minyanville poll results are in and--are you ready for this?--for every one Minyan who believed that Thursday's blackout was an honest goof, three Minyans weren't so certain. While the 3:1 ratio is pretty compelling, I want to offer an interesting excerpt from one of your fellow Minyans: Toddo, speaking as an electrical engineer (I've been chief engineer on a nuclear submarine), I'm going to say it was an accident (i.e., combination of stupidity and human error under the wrong system conditions). A blackout conspiracy might make for a B-movie script, but making it work in the real world is "too hard."
- While I remain steadfastly bearish in the long-term, I will remind you that the potential for upside remains in the near-term. I'm not talking out of both sides of my mouth (I don't know how), but being a bear doesn't mean I can ignore the constructive elements that have emerged (SOX, Dow Jones). Do I think it can last? Nope...but I respect the process enough to structure my risk profile in a way that incorporates these developments (positive gamma).
- The best poll response? "I believe the blackout was caused by a band of radical squirrels."
- The dollar has come off hard vs. earlier highs.
- Real time example: I've been playing Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE) from the short side via options. I like playing slightly in-the-money paper and when the stock drops hard, I generally roll my puts down (and sometimes "out"). If the stock rallies, I can always roll 'em back up or add to the cheaper paper. While the stock is somewhat oversold (down from 75), this is one name that I always want to keep on my sheets in some capacity.
- A recent exchange overheard in the kitchen:
Hoofy: "The Dow and Semis have broken out, we're coming out of a two month base, performance anxiety will soon kick in, the economic numbers are trending up, the Fed is accommodative and Dubya has an electoral agenda.
Boo: "The S's and N's are still at resistance, we've just churned for two months, the tape is massively complacent, the economic upticks are the reason we rallied in March, Elmer is digging us into a huge debt and deficit hole and Dubya has made a lot of new enemies."
- For what it's worth, Mark Haines loved the Minyanville cookies.
- A longtime student Minyan visited our offices (while in town from the University of Denver) and I had Fokker sit at my desk while I "assumed the position" at his smaller turret. It was pretty funny.
- Terrorism sucks.
- Bank of America is down in the face of this morning's UBS Warburg upgrade. That's a sign of supply.
- I'll likely be taking some time towards the end of next week. Just a heads up.
- Hey Lappy, I think she's gonna love it!
- Stick this in the "there's very little chance it occurs but just be aware it exists" file: There have been been repeated attacks on Middle East pipelines and while it hasn't gotten much press, it remains a concern. If the Saudi refineries become a target, it could trigger civil unrest (there) and choke off supply (here). If the price of crude moon shots, it'll cripple our fragile recovery attempt.
- When filing away the above thought, please CC: the "don't shoot the messenger" file.
- The cyclicals continue to hug and the semis continue to squeeze.
- Ron Cey.
- Hewlett Packard (HPQ:NYSE) tonight.
- If you haven't played the CCA trailer, crank up your volume and let it fly!
- Whatchu tawkin' bout Willis?
- There is still some dandruff floatin' around in the banking sector.
- Frau Bleucher!
position in fnm, spx
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