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Random Thoughts

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Something saucy is afoot....stay tuned.

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  • Not to beat a dead horse but please, Minyans, keep close tabs on the CRB. We just tossed the 200-day and we're sitting dangerously close to the trendline that has supported the "asset class reflation" since way back in 2002.

  • I've been having a "macro IM" session with Succo and Reamer and they're right--the focus has been on "less inflation" this week, NOT deflation. But if the CRB continues this path, that'll shift in a hurry and equities won't be immune.

  • If we've learned anything over the years, it's to look in the opposite direction of consensus for potentially profitable offside opportunities. I'm trying not to anticipate the break but the hairs are tinglin' on the back of my neck. Something saucy is afoot....stay tuned.

  • We're contemplating doing a MIM (Minyans in Manhattan) in November---an afternoon with two panels, a keynote and the Critter's Choice Party at night. It's gonna be "All RP" (100% net profits to the kids) and I'm vibing a two macro panel (same as Vail...but longer.). Please consider this an 'early look' with details to follow. This, my friends, is the important stuff...

  • "See" the HGX as it giggles a percent and a laugh higher. On the flip side of Rotation Station, the drillers have sprung a leak (OSX -2%).

  • I gotta tell ya, I'm squinting to find tradable tea leaves but, outside the potential CRB backhand, I can't fish 'em out just yet. So, I wait. And watch. And eyeball The Lone Wolf as he continues to walk into my office and eat my gumballs. I don't have the heart to tell him that they're five years old.

  • That's alright, he just thinks they're gobstoppers.

  • My mainstay stochastics (lousy timers but worth watching) are starting to get a bit toppy. Funny how that happens just as the all clear siren sounds.

  • The nutty thing is that most everyone--everywhere--thinks that lower crude is a bullish development. In reality, it's just another component in the "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" evolution.

  • YO ELEVEN! Keep an eye on that frisky VXO, my friends, as it clings to the 12-handle.

  • Market internals are quietly edging towards a 2:1 positive posture as we edge towards today's hump. There are some movers out there--the homies got bling and the drillers are doing the downside thing--but the bigger picture jury is still out.

  • Anyone wanna lay odds that Jesus doesn't order duck the next time he dines out?

  • Man, I sure picked a heckuva week to go on CNBC and reiterate the "energy and metals vs. tech and financial" vibe. I suppose the only saving grace is that I offered the context "in a normalized, trending market." If the CRB breaks, it will be anything but normal and the antithesis of trending.

  • R.P.
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Position in metals, financials

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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