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Random Thoughts

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Something saucy is afoot....stay tuned.

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  • Not to beat a dead horse but please, Minyans, keep close tabs on the CRB. We just tossed the 200-day and we're sitting dangerously close to the trendline that has supported the "asset class reflation" since way back in 2002.

  • I've been having a "macro IM" session with Succo and Reamer and they're right--the focus has been on "less inflation" this week, NOT deflation. But if the CRB continues this path, that'll shift in a hurry and equities won't be immune.

  • If we've learned anything over the years, it's to look in the opposite direction of consensus for potentially profitable offside opportunities. I'm trying not to anticipate the break but the hairs are tinglin' on the back of my neck. Something saucy is afoot....stay tuned.

  • We're contemplating doing a MIM (Minyans in Manhattan) in November---an afternoon with two panels, a keynote and the Critter's Choice Party at night. It's gonna be "All RP" (100% net profits to the kids) and I'm vibing a two macro panel (same as Vail...but longer.). Please consider this an 'early look' with details to follow. This, my friends, is the important stuff...

  • "See" the HGX as it giggles a percent and a laugh higher. On the flip side of Rotation Station, the drillers have sprung a leak (OSX -2%).

  • I gotta tell ya, I'm squinting to find tradable tea leaves but, outside the potential CRB backhand, I can't fish 'em out just yet. So, I wait. And watch. And eyeball The Lone Wolf as he continues to walk into my office and eat my gumballs. I don't have the heart to tell him that they're five years old.

  • That's alright, he just thinks they're gobstoppers.

  • My mainstay stochastics (lousy timers but worth watching) are starting to get a bit toppy. Funny how that happens just as the all clear siren sounds.

  • The nutty thing is that most everyone--everywhere--thinks that lower crude is a bullish development. In reality, it's just another component in the "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" evolution.

  • YO ELEVEN! Keep an eye on that frisky VXO, my friends, as it clings to the 12-handle.

  • Market internals are quietly edging towards a 2:1 positive posture as we edge towards today's hump. There are some movers out there--the homies got bling and the drillers are doing the downside thing--but the bigger picture jury is still out.

  • Anyone wanna lay odds that Jesus doesn't order duck the next time he dines out?

  • Man, I sure picked a heckuva week to go on CNBC and reiterate the "energy and metals vs. tech and financial" vibe. I suppose the only saving grace is that I offered the context "in a normalized, trending market." If the CRB breaks, it will be anything but normal and the antithesis of trending.

  • R.P.
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Position in metals, financials
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