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Random Thoughts


I strongly sense that volatility will uptick in the coming months.

  • We offered late yesterday that, absent a shocker, we'd likely see a probe higher (following Tuesday's snazzy jazz). We're seeing that follow-through now and, again, S&P 1300 might be a beacon in the flight.

  • I added some trannies for a trade yesterday (against my spate of autumn piggy puts) and let 'em ride overnight (trailing stops don't protect against gap risk). I pared some of that exposure (discipline) and will continue to utilize trailing stops on the leaves.

  • We added further zest to The Vail Trail Chronicles so, at your leisure, please circle back to the mountain track.

  • I was enjoying an abbreviated Succofest last night and John started to walk me through the particulars of time travel. After five mathematical minutes, I turned to him and said "But John, physiologically, our bodies couldn't handle the speed of light." His eyes lit up as he said "But photons can!!" I stopped, looked him at him and said, "Yeah, but who the heck wants to be a photon?"

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey finds a slight increase in bullish sentiment to 40.9% from 40.2% and a slight decline in bearish sentiment to 36.6% from 37.1% in the prior week.

  • Overheard often in Vail: "That's Stephanie Pomboy?!? I need to start reading her stuff a LOT more closely!"

  • Women be shoppin? You can't stop a woman from shoppin' but you can stop the retailers from responding. Boo is doing that thus far today as the retail sector slips despite the 5% jig in Abercrombie (ANF).

  • Tells away from the swell? Breadth is 3:1 on the NYSE (3:2 Nazz), the dollar is near session lows (-50 bips), energy and metals are playing ketchup (note the XAU +2%) and the CRB is holding above uber-important support (330-335).

  • Vexed with volatility? Yeah, with the VXO eyeing the 12-handle, I don't blame ya. I think current levels are an opportunity to use vols to my advantage (stock replacements or married puts). Not advice--my risk profile is different from your risk profile--but I strongly sense that volatility will uptick in the coming months.

  • What have I done today? Peeled some trannies off into the opening gi, er, lift and added a nice spate of autumn piggy puts. I've also peeled out of some SunMicro. Nothing loco, just stickin' like Winky Wright and keeping my posture tight.

  • At the very least, she can run for mayor of Silicone Valley?

  • Why isn't anyone discussing the fact that, since 1920, the S&P has dropped by an average of 19% between the last rate hike and the ultimate bottom?

  • Interns Nick and Spivak enjoy their last day in the mountains.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know...
  • Buzz Bit (11:38)

    Six-two stacked monster! Six-two stacked monster!

    Where's Stefen Djordjevic when you need him? No doubt putting the moves on his gal Lisa.

    Hey cookie--you're not the only one who wants to make All the Right Moves as we weigh the art to this Scientology. Come with me to Cal Poly--or at least to UMV--as we weigh some thoughts:
    • Liftage to S&P 1300 (TRAN 4400?) makes sense--particularly with NYSE internals strong and the dollar weak.
    • However, with that said, I'm eying pink piggies (red BKX) and depressed volatility, which are riding me like Coach Nickerson.
    • I made some sales out of the gate and I'm in the process of making some other sales now, including a slug of my SunMicro calls (slightly above my cost after a 30% run from the lows).
    • I've also added a bunch of out-of-the-money piggy puts (under BKX 113) as I think the "Ding Dong the Fed is Done" chorus is gonna learn a valuable lesson regarding revisionist history.

  • Fare ye well into today's bell.

  • R.P.
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Positions in trannies, financials, metals, SUNW
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