Minyan Mailbag - Metals
Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove intimidation from the financial markets and encourage an interactive dialogue among the Minyanship. We share this next discussion with that very intent.
I see metals were up overnight then came back to break-even, now higher before the US Open. What are our next levels, support, resistance? Love your insights.
Best as I can put my finger on anything, and certainly just my humble
opinion and definitely not advice.... this could be irrelevant in 15 minutes the way people are all jawboning either oil or interest rates etc. etc...
I see $406-8 futures as resistance and we touched briefly today.... still $395-393 support any dip and further fall to $385 if things get silly. I heard one analyst calling for a new low below $370. Fair enough call but as I have said many times, it will take a lot of PHYSICAL gold to keep it there for any lengthy period.. once thru $408 and $412 we should set to head toward $426 and then a new high with $455ish looking a fair target but probably in the new year. ... oil will be a key to sentiment and don't be surprised to see a $7 minus day in gold on dollar strength (for any reason) and also an oil move down in some size. Paper players still control the big price moves. A paper gold inspired move will present another opprtunity for PHYSICAL gold buyers to load up. Oil could well see 41 before 49 as the paper longs get stale and scared of reversal.... note all base metals are up today as well.... could be a strong few weeks for commodities in the offing.
I had one of my investors ask me the other day about what sort of option to buy to take advantage of a given commodity that he liked... I told him shares in an unhedged, high cost producer of the commodity. He took some time to grasp the concept that the share is a call option on that commodity that NEVER matures. Timing is everything and as such, the share can't expire "a week early" like an OTC or ETO, which is so common especially when I do them! When this concept is grasped I can almost see the light switch go on in the old cranium.
The big swim race is on here in 2hrs... the mens 200m freestyle swimming. What a great field and interestingly, one of the four fastest swimmers in history over that distance, will NOT get a medal.... that's a pretty hot field if ever there was one!
They're calling it the "race of the century" which is fair, I 'spose,
seeing it's only 4 years old!
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