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Buzz & Banter


Since 1996, when expiration Friday has closed higher on the day, the following Monday has been higher 43% of the time. Not much of a bias there. However, since 2000, when expiration Friday closed positively, the following Monday was higher only 20% of the time, with an average return of -0.69%. Three and five days after expiration the market was higher 8 times each, with average returns of -0.50% and -0.65% respectively.

Notably, regardless of whether expiration day closed higher or not, every post-expiration day in 2003 has closed negatively, with an average return of -1.83%. This negative bias continued up to 5 days later. So while today's higher market (so far) looks positive, we should be aware that recent history has not been kind the following week.
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