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Sugar Daddy


I'm not gone yet...


Oh, to live on sugar mountain
With the barkers and the colored balloons
You can't be twenty on sugar mountain
Though you're thinking that you're leaving there too soon

(Neil Young)

Good morning and welcome back to the slinky summer slither. It's time to fly in the city of critters as MVHQ readies for our migration to the mountains. As the team transitions west this weekend, there will likely be alotta loose ends that need mending today. We're here for you, of course, but I'll need a little leeway with regard to this morning's format.

Alas, some free-flowing Friday vibes:

  • As I plan to dance naked in Ojai (sans the bear costume), I tightened my risk profile by rolling down my stop to slightly above yesterday's high (S&P 1238). While this posture is particular to my specific agenda, my view of the dew remains largely in tact. S&P 1250 is Boo's bogie-and a broader level to lean on-and the financials still hold the key to the vault. With the piggy stochastics set to cross (bullish), the line in the sand that is BKX 100 is fixated on the critter compass.

  • Dell reported last night and consistent with other (cough) bellwethers of late, they messed the bed. Alotta these big cap tech names-once proudly referred to as the four horsemen-are massively over-owned in the fund community and, in many cases, the basis (cost) is much higher. My sense is that a begrudging migration will continue to take place as energy and metals become the new tech and financials.

  • I've been singing that song for a few years although I'll be the first to admit that crazy legs crude has stretched even my active imagination. While I sense (and have sensed) a pullback for Texas tea, I prefer to patiently buy the patch on dips rather than fight the broader secular trend. With that said, I think the Clampetts will hand the performance baton to the metals as they jockey for pole position. Both bode well for the CRB (poking at '05 highs) and jibe nicely with my not-so-nice assessment of the dollar.

  • Stepping off point for a moment, I would like to encourage all Minyans who are heading to Ojai to seek Pledge Farley and inquire about his Greyhound bus experience. I'm not easily shocked but the young plebe left me speechless last night when he shared a story about his hockey initiation. I can't get into the details-this is a family community-but it has forever altered my perception of Eight is Enough.

    Good luck today.

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