How many rabbits does he have in his hat?
One man caught on a barbed wire fence
One man he resist
One man washed on an empty beach.
One man betrayed with a kiss
The afternoon tape flutters towards the FOMC as the great debate continues to rage. I, for one, sense that he'll tighten the requisite 25 bips (as telegraphed) and temper his language a bit (citing a crude excuse). He's clearly walking a barbed wire tightrope as the economy, on its own merits, doesn't justify a hawkish stance. Still, and despite signs of a softer consumer and spotty employment, he'll likely talk his book.
The trillion dollar question boils down to market psychology and whether investors give Elmer the benefit of the doubt. Coming into today's session, it didn't feel like anything he could say would stem the path of least resistance. Hoofy is putting up a fight, however, as the financials, internets, cyclicals, transports, small caps and breadth all remain sticky green.
Fed days are notorious for their bipolar tendencies, so stay on your toes as we digest his prose. I'm closely watching S&P 1075 as it's the lower end of the gap to S&P 1080 (obvious resistance along with NDX 1360). We should also be on the lookout for volume (qualifier) and understand that most gorillas don't have itchy trigger fingers (they like to digest their food for thought). Finally, at some point between 2:15 and the close, the A.D.D crowd will turn their attention to Chambo and his post-market tape painting.
Good luck, Minyans, and hit 'em hard.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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