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Random Thoughts

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...technicals, for all their inherent short-comings, provide a contextual backdrop that isn't open to interpretation or emotional swaying.

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  • I opined early yesterday that S&P 1280 and NDX 1510 were important levels of lore and, until they were taken out back and shot, Boo had the benefit of my doubt. That was a harder vibe to swallow with the screens tempting green but technicals, for all their inherent short-comings, provide a contextual backdrop that isn't open to interpretation or emotional swaying.

  • Lost in translation today is the sharp Snapper in the metals, which have ripped higher as the dollar dripped lower. Me love these long-term, as you know, but I've also been constructive for a trade as they do the driller redeux.

  • Some technical vibes from Pepe "there aren't men in that warehouse!" Depew on today's Buzz:

    Below are some noteworthy levels for various indices from a PnF standpoint:

    SPX - 1265 reverses down
    DJIA - 11,050 reverses down
    NDX - 1480 reverses down
    RUT - 685 (682.50 gives new sell signal)
    TRAN - 4300 (4275 gives new sell signal)
    SOX - 400 reverses down
    BKX - 110 reverses down

  • Deutsche Bank (DB) is an important tell. DB lost money in their capital markets division. Simply put, they lost money "trading." They are not alone. Banks and dealers are having trouble making money the old fashioned way, so they are taking much more risk trading these days. I mentioned last week that while regional banks do not have near the ability to do this, large money center banks and dealers often increase their risk to make money just at the wrong time. DB lost money doing it. Many other banks like JPM and BAC have so far been doing OK, trading (at least what they have admitted to for these banks can remark their loans and derivatives for a while to make things look good), but it does not mean they have not increased their risk. While DB lost money this time, these other banks might next time. Risks have increased significantly in owning bank stocks." John Succo on today's Buzz (positions in db, bac, jp m)

  • So Hank Paulson says a strong dollar is in the U.S best interest. Doesn't he read the 'Ville?

  • He also assures us that U.S economic growth has been strong (debt what?) and moving towards sustainable growth. And, lest he was planning on getting any rest on Sunday, he said that Mr. Bush asked him to "fix" social security. Hey Hank, while you're at it, can you get the Raiders a real quarterback? How bout some flat abs? Bob Weir at MIM3?

  • Back in reality, the dollar has softened on this blurbage but our other mainstay tells, from soup to nuts and in the guts, have yet to blink better. The two constructive elements in today's muck? The S&P is keeping the 200-day underfoot, for now, and those pesky money center banks hold an underlying bid despite the still-toppy stochastics.

  • What else am I watching? The trannies, as they cling to the sting of last week's lows.

  • Succ flagged Deutsche Bank as a brokerage tell (as you can see) and it's weighing on the group. The XBD is again sitting directly on double support as the 50- and 200-day moving averages are directly below.

  • Our friends at JP Morgan inform me that, since 1950 during midterm elections, the month of August has been dicey for stocks (S&P -0.6%) but, since 1982, oil has performed exceptionally well during the same period (+5%). So you know.

  • Pharma is holding a bid again (above support). And if i had to pick an upside tri-fecta, that would "show" alongside energy and metals.

  • Ooooh, we're halfway there. Ooooh, we're living on a prayer...

  • T-minus eight days until our massive mountain shindig. I'm told (from those in the know) that Vail Cascade has found five more rooms for ye Minyan faithful. I know there are alotta tire kickers out there so, for those who weren't thrilled for a down-the-road commute, consider this a fresh lease on mountain life (or rental, as the case may be!).

  • A quick little ditty so please indulge me...

    Last night, during a rare twenty minute moment of relaxation, I was flippin' channels and came across an HBO special on Sugar Ray Robinson. What struck me was an interview with his son, who explained that his dad would always ask him if he had money on him and would proceed to slip a dollar or two into his pocket. He then said that, when Sugar Ray passed in 1989, he walked up to the casket and slipped a dollar bill in his pocket.

    I got goose bumps.

    For as long as I remember, my grandfather Ruby would say to me "do you have any money on you?" and, regardless of what I said, he would slip me a buck (this was particularly sweet in the later years in his life, when a dollar didn't go very far). At his funeral in 2001, when I stepped to his grave to pay my last respects, I quietly kneeled down and dropped a dollar bill in the ground. For whatever reason, I never remembered that fact until last night when I saw this episode on television. And, as it was a mindful moment of love in a crazy world of war, I wanted to share it with ye faithful.

  • Fare ye well into the bell, Minyans, and keep your chin up.

  • R.P.
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Position in metal equities

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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