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Random thoughts - Snoop style


  • Every person I have spoken to, indicate a high degree of anxiety in equities due to the high volatility and extraordinary rate of change in the 10-year note yields.
  • If everyone was bullish - given first thought, stocks would be down a whole heck of a lot more.
  • I can't count the number of people who are telling me that everyone is bullish. If that is so, how could everyone be bullish?
  • In going through the market today, most sectors are mixed to down small. If a blasting were fast approaching, defensive stocks would be higher and higher beta would be getting drubbed. So far, despite all the economic numbers, that isn't the case.
  • Again, the economic releases are mixed enough to keep a pure consensus view at bay. So much for the key numbers! Ultimately, that is good because it is hard to disappoint consensus - if there is no consensus.
  • If you are looking at the extraordinary spike in the 10-year note yield Rate of Change...try looking at the monthly picture for perspective. The ROC is near the same level as in early 1999 and mid 1994.
  • As you all know, I am neutral until the market breaks out of the current range, but given what I read and have makes me feel like a raging bull. I am hard-pressed to say there is complacency given the folks I have spoken to.
  • I am getting a dog on Saturday and it just hit me that I will be the first person it sees everyday, which means I HAVE TO WALK IT! That wasn't part of the deal.
  • The market is likely to break this range soon given how identifiable it is. I am not sure the direction. I can see a downside break of SPX 975 leading to a sharp sell off toward 955-965 as easily as I can see a move above resistance of 1015. That means from a broad perspective it makes sense to wait and develop a plan of action once it does take place.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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