Freaks and Friday
Friday's are my toughest task but I won't go down without a bite!
Well, I dreamed I saw the silver space ships flying
In the yellow haze of the sun,
There were children crying and colors flying
All around the chosen ones.
Good morning and welcome back to the storming. It's been a tough week for those fighting the fur as the shadow of doubt cast a quick crimson blur. Between earnings shortfalls and public elections, the once proud bull camp has suffered defections. "Uncertainty never bodes well for a tape," said Hoofy as he chewed sour grapes, "but if fundies can get themselves into shape, my bovine brethren are sure to escape!" It's freaky, it's Friday, it's sure to fulfill so let's suck it up as we romp through the 'Ville!
General Electric (GE:NYSE) brought earnings to life this morning and while the uber-conglomerate has alotta moving parts, the general consensus is that it was a solid report. The standout comment by top dog Jeff Immelt was that "this is the best economy we've seen in years." While we always gotta take these views with a grain of salt (no honey, you look great--really!), we must also factor the field position into the equation. In other words, if hedgies have pressed the recent tape on earnings spurning, this data point (near support levels) might scare some bears.
The minxy moxie comes on a Freaky Friday that have recently been littered with financial manicures and portfolio posturing. We're painfully aware of the technical tickle--NDX 1440-50 is triple lindy support (and/or resistance), Citigroup (C:NYSE) $45 is the Sandy line (get it?), XBD 120 may be a dislocated shoulder and DXY 88 is new resistance if the dollar wants to get some greenback. Toss in a slew of stochastics that, while not hooking, are certainly looking and, well, you get the picture even if it's not focused.
The psychology patience must also be discussed as we assimilate our fate. The lofty sentiment levels are rarely discussed anymore as they've been rendered obsolete contrarian indicators. To be sure, the mood has dampened a bit in recent weeks (after yet another failed acne attempt) but complacency continues to rule the roost. Teenage volatility indices are not the stuff that panic is made of and--mark my words--we'll look back at these levels one day and opine that youth is wasted on the young.
Carrie remains the wildcard as we attempt to wrap our arms around the structural metric. There has been considerable debate as to whether she's coming or going and the answer to that question will help craft the correct risk profile. I haven't had a good sniff in a while as there has been an asset class rotation (into metals) rather than a correlated movement. Still, we must keep our eyes peeled as we dance with the prom queen and scout out her friends.
We power up this minxy muck to find a firmer Asia, a flattish Europe, a confused dollar and mixed metals (silver up 2%). In addition to the frittery jitters into the weekend, we've also got a monster line-up of earnings on deck and portfolio managers are busy positioning themselves in preparation. With a difficult first half under their belts and a strong second half in their sites, funds will likely open their stance and take meatier cuts. As traders, we'll have to be pitch selective and conscious of the strike zone.
In Minyanville news, tick keeps on tickin' as we approach the 1st annual Minyans in the Mountains Crested Butte retreat. This will be the first time that the entire Minyanville family will be together and we would love to share those vibes with ye faithful who have traveled this journey with us. The itinerary pretty much sums it up--it's part financial presentations and networking, part outdoor activities and partying and all good, all the time. I know it's a schlep--but I give you my word that it'll be worth the trip!
Good luck today.
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