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Equities Technical Analysis



Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliott Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.

Citigroup (C:NSYE) has declined from the June highs in what could very well be an impulsive fashion, which means that the levels I have noted before of $48-49 may not be realized. If "5" down from the June highs is registered and prices drop below the May lows by more than 2 points, then the next large impulsive wave down is likely to have started. If a "5" down registers from the June high, there is likely to be an ensuing bounce, however if this "5" does not materialize an uptrend could be seen in the $48-49 region.

Cisco (CSCO:NASD) is the NDX: what happens in the $22-22.80 region that I have been citing as important support will determine if this stock is re-starting a bear trend (and will fall meaningfully below the May lows) or is about to bounce strongly to new swing highs. So far, there are 3 waves down from the June highs: if "5" waves develop in this correction, that will be very bearish indeed. The analysis suggests that if a clear "5" down occurs, the bear trend would be confirmed. However, classic momentum divergences and other bottoming action could mean a turn to the upside, so long as no "5" wave impulse moves down are seen.

Ford (F:NYSE) looks like it is declining in an impulsive fashion: a clean "5" wave move down from the June high is needed to confirm this, but the pieces are in place for that to happen soon. Once that "5" wave move down is complete, it is likely that there will be an ensuing bounce for a move to new swing lows beneath the March lows (beneath $13.00). For now I'll wait for that confirmed trend change (to down with a "5" wave move down on the daily chart) and then keep an eye on any bounces.

Microsoft (MSFT:NASD) has started a decline that seems very much the start of a larger correction, as the daily momentum has rolled over hard. Once a "5" wave move down on the daily chart can be identified, that will be enough evidence to strongly suggest that my call for an important top in MSFT is manifest. Much like Ford, a "5" wave down would likely result in a bounce of sorts. Analysis also suggests that unless MSFT breaks through the $28.70, that a top may already have been reached.

New York Community Bancorp (NYB:NYSE) has reached the $18.93 level that I have been watching to see if it crossed: the larger call however remains that this stock is very near to completing a "5" wave move down from the March highs which could result in a healthy bounce for 1-3 months before another big move down ensues. Once I identify a solid Fibonacci target we'll highlight it in a note. For now patience is key to analyzing this stock.

Oracle (ORCL:NASD) is still looking for a 5th wave low from its January peak: I have been looking for the $10.85 or lower area to provide that low. "5" waves down from the recent peak in late June could be an initial clue that a solid bottom may be near. I'll be patient with this stock as well: I'll look for classic non-confirmations of price lows on the daily and hourly chart as well as Demark trend exhaustion signals to suggest a price point where I can establish further analysis.

Red Hat (RHAT:NASD) has put in a clean "5" down from its June peak and I'm looking for a bounce to the $23-25 area to establish good risk/reward scenarios. For now I feel that higher prices will eventually be seen. Further analysis will be available once clear indicators develop. Patience remains key to this stock as well.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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