By Todd Harrison Jul 08, 2003 11:24 am
A big thanks to the Reamers!
Well, you don't know what
You can find
Why don't you come with me little girl
On a magic carpet ride
Ashton Fokker, cabana boy extraordinaire, just peered his head over his screen and asked me what I was thinking. That's a loaded question, young man, as the wheels are spinnin' mighty tight today. I told him (with a straight face) that I'd share my thoughts if he promised to return the bag of dentures to south Florida. He complied, so here we go...
First things first, I'm hearing from a trusted contact that his (sell side) firm saw a bunch of short selling yesterday (the highest level in a month outside of the semi and telecom space). That probably contributed to the underlying bid this morning and buoyed the first dip. The tone has steadied after an active morning with the brokers, trannies, biotechs, cyclicals and retailers all exhibiting decent relative strength. The semis, on the other hand, are sorta heavy as chatter of stagnant capital spending makes the rounds.
With July expiration around the corner (that was fast!), it's not too early to start talking about the negative gamma in the marketplace. I've always been of the opinion that these events are ungamable and the net/net is a volatility exacerbation (feel free to chime in, Professor Succo). My point--and yes, I have one--is that the combination of technical breakouts (NDX, XBD), earnings uncertainty, massive complacency (cockiness) and structural unknowns will meld into a wild ride into next week. Stay disciplined and try to structure your risk such that your winners run and your losers are defined.
Am I bullish or bearish? That depends largely on the horizon we're discussing. I could "see" further upside in the near-term but remain resolute that this is gonna end nasty. I've got some "relative" longs on (via calls) and some requisite shorts (via puts). In between, I'm day trading to augment my risk profile and trying to secure some peripheral profits. Keep in mind, please, that my posture is ever-changing and I'll pounce like a Zoebird if the situation warrants it.
Finally, and a day late, I'd like to offer my warmest thanks to Scotto & Megan Reamer (and pops Jack) for their hospitality last week. While they tended to the important stuff, they allowed me to stay at their place in Crested Butte and remojonate. I can't thank you guys enough....not only for your kindness, but for the perspective I gained from your company. Ya'll good Minyans and the critters are sendin' ya all the white light they can muster!
As always, I hope this finds you well.
positions in gs, mwd, bsc
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