A Thousand Cuts
That better not be a steak knife in your hand!
Editor's Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove intimidation from the financial markets and encourage an interactive dialogue among the Minyanship. We share this next discussion with that very intent.
I agree with your comments this a.m. and I am stunned at the lack of concern for ANY risk in this market. Not advocating panicking but this a.m. the teletubbies were practically bullish treating the attacks as a buying opportunity. They were actually highlighting oil being down a few dollars.
In our global environment with all the problems and all the overvaluation stocks should be dirt cheap and we should be arguing about selling everything - which of course would be the time to buy. Instead today, as you know, valuations are priced for perfection and the system is loaded with debt. P/Es are at historical highs (and the Es are BS anyway) and yields are at historical lows! Yet no one cares.
Your comments before the open seemed spot on to me, but from listening to the nonsense on TV I knew they would try and bounce this market. As I write the DOW is off only 45 points!
All of this makes me even more convinced that this will end in some type of massive crash. Otherwise these dip buyers will never go away. Something has to shake them to their knees. What that is or when it happens I have no idea and that is what makes this business risky to me. As it stands today, my job as a portfolio manager is a joke because doing real work only gets you in trouble.
All the best,
First, let me say that I try to avoid "predicting" anything in the short run...it is just a matter of psychology and money flows. Anyone who says "buy here" or "sell here" is at most going on very circumstantial evidence.
That being said you know I agree with you fully.
But it may unfold a little differently than a crash. Bulls can die of 1000 cuts as well, so the market is just as likely to wear them down as stick a knife in them.
The TV as well as Wall Street is a sales machine. My long term thesis may prove incorrect, but in the short term we try to offer a different view than what the masses are fed.
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