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  • The NASDAQ Composite (NAZ) has bounced back to the June high and is no longer in oversold territory. Near-term support has held so there is nothing dire happening...just that buying due to an oversold condition is no longer valid and given the intermediate-term loss of momentum.
  • The S&P 500 (SPX) and DJIA have lagged the NAZ and should play a little catch up this week, especially given that recent disappointing economic reports, which seem to support a rotation from aggressive high beta (tech and telecom) to more defensive low beta stocks.
  • The 10-year note yield has bounced back to its prior breakdown point of 3.66-3.67% and prices have become oversold. If the bond market was to rally, it should be from near current levels. In English, despite indication of stronger equity opening, bonds may catch a bid very near-term, potentially detracting from the interest in stocks.
  • At the beginning of last week, we expected a retest of the June highs due to the near-term (daily) oversold condition in the various market indices. The intermediate-term (weekly) loss of momentum and overbought condition could lead to a pause once the recent highs are retested.
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