Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Drop lower
Your daily Buzz highlights...
Editor's Note: This is a small sample of the content available on the Buzz and Banter.
Earnings Report - MV News
- Whole Foods (WFMI) reports 3Q EPS of $0.37 vs. $0.34 cons on revs of $1.34 bln vs. $1.37 bln cons.
- MetLife (MET) reports 2Q operating EPS of $1.28 vs. $1.14 cons on revs of $11.41 bln vs. $12.47 bln cons.
- Chipotle (CMG) reports 2Q EPS of $0.33 vs. $0.26 cons on revs of $204.9 mln vs. $199.6 mln. Sees year comp sales up low double digits with long term annual operating income growth of +25%.
Good Day on Ya, mate! - Todd Harrison - 3:47 AM
- Let the MIM3 journey officially begin! Laurie McGuirk, bottle of rum in hand and The Lisa in the other, just pranced into MVHQ and announced his presence with authority. I looked at him--then at my watch--and said "G'day mate! You've got 21 minutes--why don't you write something!"
- As discussed last week, and in front of our massive mingle, my risk profile will likely remain light and tight this week. I will, however, continue to put my very best thoughts (and most lucid eyes) on the Buzz for ye faithful.
- I offer those thoughts with a very defined context. You'll never see us throw alotta "stuff" against the wall with hopes that something sticks (we'll leave that to others). The vibes you find in the 'Ville will be concise, lucid, disciplined and honest. As you've come to expect.
- Lemme hop and hug as we pull into the close. I sincerely hope you had a fine day and that the you didn't chase ticks or fight ticks. Life's too short for that kinda stuff.
Man these smart money guys keep being smart - Bennet Sedacca - 1:10 PM
I look at this data weekly, provided that the CFTC keeps giving it to us after this month. No real change in SPU's, they remain short to the tune of about 55,000 contracts, and it doesn't appear they are afraid of the recent rally, even though the data is from Tuesday.
But note the chart here that I try to publish weekly. CFTC sold strength in the long end of the bond market and something tells me it sold even more. Remember it was long a record 250,000 contracts. Well, it sold strength again, right after buying weakness (higher yield).
Lastly, I noticed that the CFTC is starting to build a moderate short position in 10's. But nothing to really talk about yet, just to be aware of. Continued note to self - buy weakness, sell strength. Or as Todd would say, buy when you can, not when you have to........
My Name is Charlie - Kevin Depew - 12:56 PM
Minyan Cheryle "Ladd" just asked me about Akamai Technologies (AKAM) and warned me to stop calling her Kris.
On a PnF basis there's (naturally) nothing wrong with AKAM since it's on a buy signal (gave a new buy signal today in fact) and is one of the strongest performers both among sector peers and versus the Nasdaq-100 (NDX). I do not see any near-term upside exhaustion signals from DeMark TD-Sequential or TD-Combo on the daily or weekly chart... yet. However, the stock has recently registered multiple monthly DeMark TD-Sequential and TD-Combo signals (not today's business, and doubtfully even next week's). For now, only coming below 34 on a PnF basis would cast doubt on the stock's near-term technical health.
Also, technically, did you know that the character of Dan Tanna (Vega$) was a spinoff of Charlie's Angles having been introduced in a two-part episode? Neither did I. Thanks Kri... Cheryle!
Interesting...Looking Back 30 Years... - Jason Roney - 11:42 AM
In general, the S&P 500 has an up bias on the first day of the month and that does in fact increase when the last day of the prior month closed down. But the month of August is different. The percent positive close for first day of august for S&P 500 is just 46.7%. And when the last day of july was lower, the first day of august was positive just 33.3% of the time.
This may be of interest if the SPX were to close lower today.
Wine and Cheese - Fil Zucchi - 11:32 AM
Whole Foods (WFMI) - no stranger to the dark side of my buzzes - reports this afternoon. Consensus is for $0.34 on revenues of $1.39b. For the year estimates are at $6.99b and $1.39.
To say that there is tension around the stock is probably a gross understatement. This a grocery store trading at P/E'in the 50's with slowing metrics. Hoofy would argue that this is one of the more unique, secular / life-style stories in a long while. Our friendly bovine notes that the stock is already down quite a bit on the theory that $3.25 gas and $18 Parmesan cheese are a tough combo for most people, so the risk is out. While Boo is humming "we've only just begun."
The doubt is reflected in the August 50 calls and 55 puts trading for a price that assumes a 15% move up/down in the next 19 days. While my sense is that the stock will have a sharp trade one way or the other (and I'm set up pretty much accordingly with a short bias), perhaps therein lies the area of maximum frustration.
Whichever way one leans be aware of the risks.
Position in WFMI
Frisky Appetite Reverts to Risk Appetite - Woody Dorsey - 10:20 AM
Last week's short covering bonanza is sobering up today. Yes, the appetite for risk has suddenly reappeared. Why was last week bullish and this week will likely be bearish? Bearish positions and bearish perceptions needed to be cognitively cleansed.
This period still looks like a "Churn." A 'Fed is Done' push needs to happen before new negatives take their turn at the downtrend tiller. Watch for Forex flows and Weather flows to create a bearish paradigm later in the Summer. The current churning profile is an important and lawful behavioral phase penultimate to a Fall Fall.
Moody's Reports This Week - Brian Gilmartin - 9:07 AM
Moody's (MCO) reports earnings Wednesday, and we remain long the shares after the stock's longest consolidation since the spring of 2003.
MCO was up 10% last week thanks to both McGraw-Hill's Standard & Poor's and Fitch reporting strong results on the back of robust 2nd quarter '06 corporate high-grade bond issuance and new issuance volume. (CDO issuance volume was robust, while RMBS and Europe were weak, with Europe's weakness attributed to the World Cup.)
The Bear Stearns analyst thinks the top-line comparison for Moody's is the toughest of the three credit rating agencies since MCO is comping 25% revenue growth from last year's q2 '05, while S&P and Fitch comped 14% and 21% respectively.
If you'll recall our April post in 1Q '06, MCO saw very poor numbers in financial institutions, for which we should see expect to see some rebound given the high-grade corporate bond issuance volume in 2Q.
Technically, the attached weekly chart shows MCO attempting to regain its 50-week moving average, and is now very oversold on the weekly chart. There is a breakdown gap near $70 on the daily chart.
Position in MCO
What you need to know... - Jon Doctor J Najarian - 8:04 AM
Humana 2Q Looks Strong - Things weren't so great for Aetna (AET), but health-benefits provider Humana (HUM) has just announced 2Q net income up 10% to $89.5 million, or 53 cents a share versus a Street estimate of 35 cents a share. Revenue climbed 53% to $5.4 billion.
SanDisk Buying Msystems $1.3 Billion – Micron (MU) kicked things off by buying Lexar Media ( and the deal du jour (of the day) is SanDisk buying Israeli flash memory company Msystems (FLSH) for 0.76368 of a share of SanDisk (SNDK) common stock.
Northrop (NOC) Auctions Nav Systems – The massive defense contractor has put its navigation systems unit on the auction block and it could sell for as much as $1 billion, the Wall Street Journal reports today in its online version.
Position in HUM, NOC
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