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Random Thoughts


As go the financials, so goes the tape?

  • Month-end mark-up? I don't see it. The "games people play" are typically relegated to the days before quarter-end.

  • Bear Stearns upped the pharma group this morning. Why do I point this out? We've been eyeballing the acne above DRG 340ish and the longer it bases (above previous resistance and current support), the more likely a fresh leg higher becomes.

  • If Bernanke can navigate our economy through these structural crosscurrents, he should toss his hat into this ring.

  • As mentioned earlier, S&P 1280 and NDX 1510 are the nearest-term levels of technical lore.

  • Why NDX 1510? It's previous support (multiple bottoms in October 2005 and June 2006) and current resistance (don't blink). Given the relative strength in the semis (SOX +70 bips) and the "neither here nor there" stochastics, this 'price point' remains a pretty important tell.

  • As go the financials, so goes the tape? That applies in good times and bad, Minyans, so please "see" BankAmerica and Wells Fargo as they eye-ball all-time highs. You don't have to agree with it, you just have to respect it. The stochastics are toppier than Serendipity Sundae but it's worthy of a mention as we fit the pieces together.

  • A quick sniff of our tea leaves scream "trying but not yet there" and my early sense--for what it's worth--is that we'll end with the same sorta sentiment. In other words, until those levels are taken out and shot, Boo has the benefit of my doubt...

  • Hercules, Hercules, Hercules! Baby's got gas? I hope he bought it before we lifted off today. Nat Gas is up 8.5% as this heat wave rips through the country.

  • "The call for this week: Last week the S&P 500 pushed above both its 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1257, as well as its 200-DMA (1266). However, the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index did not. Meanwhile, the 10-year T'Note yield dipped below 5%, vaulting the D-J Utility Index to within sneezing distance of its all-time high. Yet, almost unnoticed has been the silent "crash" in the D-J Transportation Average (DJTA), which despite Friday's Fling (+109 points), is off more than 11% from its July 3rd high. This is not insignificant because if the markets are a discounting mechanism, the economically sensitive DJTA is telegraphing serious economic slowing ahead, confirming what is occurring in the real estate complex." Jeff "I'll see you at MIM3 next week!" Saut of Raymond James in his always excellent weekly missive.

  • "Since June 15 there have been three days in which NYSE advancing volume was 96% (June 15), 91% (June 29), and 92% (July 19) of the total volume figure. And on June 24 advancing volume was 89% of total volume. These volume surges are positives and SHOULD be providing the market with lift. We're mindful that technicals have improved but overall volume has been light. As a result we don't believe (at least right here) that the market can rally strongly without a general pick-up in volume." John "if it ain't" Roque (don't fix it) of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • And it stoned me! (Thanks for the fantastic feedback from thy faithful!)

  • How do you pass sixty hours of bed rest (as I did this past weekend)? Movies, and lots of 'em. The highlight had to be a flick I've seen numerous times but enjoyed anew--North Dally Forty. It's amazing (and somewhat sad) how art imitates life at times.

  • "Last week's short covering bonanza is sobering up today. Yes, the appetite for risk has suddenly reappeared. Why was last week bullish and this week will likely be bearish? Bearish positions and bearish perceptions needed to be cognitively cleansed. This period still looks like a "Churn." A 'Fed is Done' push needs to happen before new negatives take their turn at the downtrend tiller. Watch for Forex flows and Weather flows to create a bearish paradigm later in the Summer. The current churning profile is an important and lawful behavioral phase penultimate to a Fall Fall." Woody Dorsey on today's Buzz.

  • T-minus nine days....and yes, we're very excited.

  • R.P.
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