The Calm Before the Storm
Here it comes!
Good morning and welcome back to the choosy snooze. The Minx migrated through another sleepy session yesterday as the drifty sift continued to twist. After awaking from their afternoon naps, the critters gathered their belongings and hooked up in Town Square. Over some ice tea and schnitzel, they discussed the wiggles and jiggles that make up our giggles. The conversation went a little something like this:
Daisy: If I knew today was gonna be such a snoozer, Hoofs, I woulda never let you out of bed this morning!
Hoofy: Yeah baby, we woulda made one heckuva milkshake!
Boo: I've gotta admit, the concept of Hoofy getting screwed is rather appealing to me--but not the way you're thinking!
Sammy: Guys, you keep lobbin' these grenades back and forth but, truth be told, we've gone nowhere fast. The bears are convinced they've got the bulls on the ropes and the bovine opine that the bears are just dopes. It'll resolve itself--and soon--but making a monster truck bet right now is risky business. Personally, I think the sideways slither is a perfect environment for a slinky snake!
Snapper: Don't get too used to it, Sam, 'cause the looming economic data is gonna shake up the mojo.
Hoofy: Yeah baby, but as long as the NDX holds the uber-trendline (sitting on it now) and the S&P hugs 50-day (982ish), the technicians will give the Minx their stamp-ede of approval. A little fear is healthy fuel for the next leg higher.
Boo: Me excusa, usted dijo miendo? Did you say fear? What crowd are you hanging with? There's surely fear in the market--fear of missing, fear of being short, fear of Fokker fumbling another meal ticket. There is certainly no anxiety as it pertains to the downside. Look at the Investor's Intelligence numbers, they've been skewed this way for a while but make no mistake--when this boat capsizes, there won't be enough life rafts for everyone on board.
Hoofy: Are you a bear or a groundhog? I could swear I've heard this shpiel before.
Boo: Mock what you don't understand, Hoofs, but none of this stuff ever matters...until it does. I respect the structural influences and Elmer's moxie--he's a frisky old fella-- but the only thing that's recovered is the stock market. There's no end demand. There aren't any jobs. Pricing power is an oxymoron. The smoke and mirrors is gonna morph into a smoking gun and when that happens... You'll wonder what YOU'VE been smoking!
Sammy: Just remember the talk Toddo had yesterday from the trading sage. Wait for your pitch, don't press and understand the dynamic. That's not to say that you can't play--you surely can--but to borrow an old quote, irrationality can outlast solvency. You've gotta make sure you're in the game if you're gonna get your last licks.
Daisy: Speaking of Toddo, didn't he say yesterday that he was gonna be out on Friday? What a slacker!
Snapper: Yeah, some example he's setting! From what I understand, he'll post through lunch today, take some afternoon meetings and be back in Minyanville on Monday morning.
Boo: That's alright, if he wants to let the inmates run the asylum, I'm more than happy to oblige. Somebody call nurse Rached!
Sammy: Easy fella, after Beeks does his thing, we should get some collective directive. Please remember, however, that Thursday's data is merely an appetizer. The real deal will be sealed on Friday with the release of the unemployment rate (exp. 6.3%), change in nonfarm payrolls (exp. 10k), change in manufacturing payrolls (exp. -33k), personal income and spending (exp. .3%, .4%) and the Wolverine confidence number (exp. 90.5). Expect further posturing into the close.
Boo: I hear ya, but I still think time is running out on this bullish craze, er, phase. I can't shake this image of Elmer and Dubya, shovels in hand, digging a gaping hole in the middle of the financial system. That's not a call for today but this little experiment of theirs is not gonna end pretty. And you can quote me on that!
Hoofy: Noted Boo, and we'll put in next to the other apocalyptic musings you've issued to date. What ever happened to Toddo's search for a crunchy bear babe? Maybe if you had some company you wouldn't be such a bitter little critter!
Boo: There's time for that, cookie, and I don't want to be distracted. Too much to do, and not enough Boo!
Daisy: Oy, could you imagine if there were MORE of him? (smiles) Hey guys, enough tape talk...let's head over to the Birdland for some chow. We bust our hump all day just so we can relax and play. Unless we practice what we preach, those words are empty. Work to live...don't live to work. Life is entirely too short for that.
The fantastic five looked the dairy diva in the eye and knew better than to argue. And just like that, they turned and began walking towards their favorite haunt. The Minx was readying for some jazzy action and, one way or another, this tight range would soon be in the rear view mirror. Rather than look ahead, and before they looked behind, they wanted to appreciate the here and now. For in a blink of an eye, it would soon be gone.
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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