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The Bear Stare


Rumper Room?


Night after night, day after day, it went on and on
Then came that morning he woke up alone
He spent all night staring down at the lights of MV
Wondering if he could ever go home

(Bob Seger)

Good morning and welcome back to the Friday flack. It's been a tough month for the bears in the hood as their ursine intents were misunderstood. They pointed to problems and overbought tapes but ended up choking on green sour grapes. "We're at all-time highs in the small and mid-caps?" asked Boo as he planned for a minxy collapse, "I'll be the first to give Hoofy some snaps but he best watch his back as I set the bull trap." Will July pass by without a big dip or are we now set for a most vicious flip? It's freaky-it's Friday-get ready to thrill as we dig in our heels for a romp in the 'Ville!

Last night, while enjoying the last leg of a Succofest trifecta at BLT Steak, I heard a muffled ruffle coming from the other room. I excused myself from the table and walked around the bend to find our buddy Boo in a protein ponder. "If I could just figure out how to flank this shank," he mumbled, "I'm certain that I can find the weakness in the bovine bravado." I shook my head slowly, grabbed the bear by the paw and brought him to our table in the center of the room.

"Hey Succ," he said as he slid to the table, barely able to make eye contact with the noble professor. "Listen guys," I began, trying to avoid an uncomfortable silence, "we all see the snazzy looking charts (NDX, S&P, MID, RUT) and hear the constructive commentary seeping out of the Street. But what if this technical affirmation was necessary to trigger the "all in" from Matador City? The bear case has been muted by the upside meander but I can point to several elements worthy of a nose scrunch."

As the waiter introduced us to a fresh gaggle of geese, I continued my train of thought. "Alright, so the banks don't act so hot, highlighted by Citigroup's slippage through support yesterday. The piggies haven't participated in this latest lift and IF (big if) BKX 100 fails, Hoofy will have some 'splainin to do. Further, note the recent tenor of Google. It hasn't traded quite right since earnings and, as it's the poster child for new age speculation, we should note the subtle shift. Finally, Tom DeMark's indicators seem to be sniffin' out something nosty and while nothing is fail safe, there's a reason why he's so highly regarded by the world's most successful money managers."

There was a moment of silence as we let the words digest with the rest of our meal. We knew that the path of least resistance seemingly pointed higher but I, for one, always like to see the "other side of the trade." With month end meshing with a slow summer Friday, however, these observations may have to wait until next week. Still, I wanna keep 'em on my radar, along with the market internals and leadership from our mainstay sectors (watch the SOX today).

As the check came and we prepared to leave, John asked me how MiM2 was shaping up. "Believe it or not, we're starting to see some capacity restraints as Minyans migrate to the mountains and scoop up the rooms. I know folks that are planning to attend and I wanna make sure they understand that the offering is starting to thin." John, Boo and I looked at each other and smiled. For thinning offers were nothing new in our world.

Good luck today.

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