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A Quick Vibe From Minyan Santoli




The following is a vibe from Minyan Mike Santoli that I thought ye faithful would wanna see. Michael, who writes a "can't miss" trading column for Barron's, is a sharp cookie and, more importantly, a good man.

Evidence that May/September love affairs are not without their bumps (take it from a guy who, like Dave Winfield, has been called Mr. May in such a context):

Elaborating on Tony's point about the market's tendency to rise from the end of May to the end of September in election years, and of special note to those convinced we've already seen the low for this go-round:

In those same May-Sept. periods in the election years from '64-'00, the drawdown over that period (May 31 close to the low between May-Sept.) averaged 4.96% on the Dow. (I used the Dow because I had the older data handy and am too lazy to go to the nearest Bloomberg.)

The largest drawdown: 8.4% in '96
The smallest drawdown: 2.4% in '76

The Dow's recent low was 3% below end May levels. If I were the sort of guy to believe in election-year numerology, which I'm really not, I'd say that history suggests at least a tad more 'down' before we enjoy the pre-election 'up.'



No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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