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A Quick Vibe From Minyan Santoli

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Smack!

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The following is a vibe from Minyan Mike Santoli that I thought ye faithful would wanna see. Michael, who writes a "can't miss" trading column for Barron's, is a sharp cookie and, more importantly, a good man.



Evidence that May/September love affairs are not without their bumps (take it from a guy who, like Dave Winfield, has been called Mr. May in such a context):

Elaborating on Tony's point about the market's tendency to rise from the end of May to the end of September in election years, and of special note to those convinced we've already seen the low for this go-round:

In those same May-Sept. periods in the election years from '64-'00, the drawdown over that period (May 31 close to the low between May-Sept.) averaged 4.96% on the Dow. (I used the Dow because I had the older data handy and am too lazy to go to the nearest Bloomberg.)

The largest drawdown: 8.4% in '96
The smallest drawdown: 2.4% in '76

The Dow's recent low was 3% below end May levels. If I were the sort of guy to believe in election-year numerology, which I'm really not, I'd say that history suggests at least a tad more 'down' before we enjoy the pre-election 'up.'

--MJS

R.P.

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