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Random Thoughts


You can trade seven ways till Sunday as long as you're disciplined.


  • Every time my feet are cold, I check myself to see if I'm actually nervous.

  • It must be time for a strong dollar policy again!

  • Kevin "tickle me" Tuttle will be providing the 100 year Dow chart and a Mornin' Cup of Jo mug to all Minyanfest attendees. We've got some other surprises waiting for ye faithful so get psyched. Only 21 days to go!

  • Continued chatter on the hedge fund bubble.

  • Since 1964, the S&P 500 has never seen negative returns between the end of May and the end of September in an election year. The average gain is 4.6% and the S&P 500 is currently down 3% from the end of May. --Snoop Tony Dwyer

  • Before the Minyans arrive in Crested Butte, Scott Reamer and I have some unfinished whiffle ball business to tend to. Last time I was there, I took him downtown--all the way to Chinatown!

  • From Phil "my pockets" Erlanger and his always excellent morning missive: "Seasonally, July was destined to be flat to down. At this point July has been a tad worse than usual -- but we do have 2 more trading days to rectify that situation. The pre-market futures are up -- let's see if we can see a "positive breadth" day or two, with strength into the closes. The onus is on the bulls."

  • And you thought you had credit card issues?

  • Battleship or Connect Four?

  • A good scribe from a good guy over on CBS MarketWatch.

  • Happy Birthday to my brother Adam. May the O's win one in honor of your day!

  • Housekeeping! We'll be powering down tomorrow at 2pm EST to begin our move to the new and improved digs. Further, I've gotta take a left coast fly by on Tuesday/Wednesday to take three very important (and potentially awesome) meetings. The critters and I will be on the red eye and back in action (however tired) on Thursday.

  • Please note the monster gap in Intel (INTC:NASD) between $24 and $26.

  • The metals have scrapped back as the dollar struggles with DXY 90.

  • All we are is dust in the wind, dude.

  • I'm still firmly of the belief that energy will retake the top weighting on the S&P.

  • Wanna make a strong statement to your colleagues? Your firm may be eligible for a gratis one month Minyanville passport on your behalf! Please ping us for details and climb on board the critter express!

  • You're my boy, Blue!

  • S&P 1100-1106 is an important hurdle for the bulls.

  • How much "massaging" is going on in front of month-end? Not as much as goes on in front of quarter-end.

  • I'm gonna spill the beans and tell the whole story when we're in Colorado.

  • Succo and I had a fantastic conversation with his nephew Joe and his fellow Army Ranger Justin. When we got into the sticky subject of the merits of the war, they made an interesting point. Their first concern, they said, was for each other...then it was for the guys around them....then for their platoon...then their company...then the Army...then the armed forces....then.... You get the picture. They aren't afforded the luxury of a "top down" debate--they're just taking care of the minutes and letting the hours take care of themselves.

  • Everyone is keying on crude (-1.5%).

  • The consumer names are under distribution. That's a potentially bullish signal for the broader tape.

  • Europe continues to lift.

  • It's official--my cats are freaky.

  • I'm "constructive" on the market short-term but trading with tight and trailing stops as I respect the potential for trap doors. With my big picture bearish bent, I have no interest in building positions and averaging down.

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