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The Golden Road

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Month end agendas will start to emerge.

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Let's enjoy it while we can
Won't you help me sing my song
From the dark end of the street
To the bright side of the road

(Van Morrison)

Good morning and welcome back to the knife that jacked. With yesterday's snap fresh on our map, it's time to get set for the fray that's on tap. "The jiggy green crude soured the mood," said Hoofy the bull of his recent bear feud, "but stocks were then bought by traders so shrewd that it left the bereft feeling left out and screwed!" The bovine opine that everything's fine but is this a trap set by Red Dye design? The 'ol minxy shtick is coming up quick so let's dive on in to the muck that's so thick!

The battle lines have been drawn and they're clear for those that stand long. NDX 1360 and S&P 1080 came under heavy fire yesterday but just as Boo's crew looked ready to fold, some low level chatter began to take hold. Most traders don't know Yukos from a yucca tree but word that a settlement was possible sent the pressers scurrying for the exits. The bungee bulls chased the tape higher--gapping the futures along the way--and we settled in easy when a few gaps filled on the charts.

That sets the stage for today's road rage as the bulls are once again emboldened. As long as these levels hold, they figure, a tangible backstop exists that defines their exposure. That seems a bit simplistic in a world that's far from easy but if it ain't broke (literally), it's still support. As discussed, there are valid reasons for a lift (twisty stochastics and firm spreads) and ample evidence that we should be much, much lower. I'm taking the journey one step at a time and augmenting my approach to reflect the conflicting signals.

Crude is obviously a focus today and should help shape equity sentiment. The financials also remain on the radar as they gave two strong clues during yesterday's ruse. The first was when the brokers tapped resistance at XBD 120 (before Boo opened a can of whoop ass) and the second was when Citigroup (C:NYSE) (along with the cyclicals) traded dry in the face of supply (before the Snapper). I'll also be watching breadth (not so hot yesterday), high beta (biotechs and internets) and fixed income (for signs of alligators).

Finally, and in our very exciting and uber-inviting countdown to Smoresville, only 21 days remain until the Minyan festivus. The set list is out and describes the topics that will be discussed by each of the participating professors. There will also be open forums and active Q&A sessions so gather your thoughts and get ready for a mindmeld. There will be a fair amount of mountain fun, mind you, but the nuts and guts of this adventure is to walk away with smarter vibes, better relationships and a more lucid financial thought process. Wasabi!

Good luck today.

R.P.

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