Buzz & Banter
I have monitored this site to try to determine the exact same thing the Pentagon is - whether futures markets can predict future outcomes, or if they are simply a reflection of current popular belief. From my experiences watching sports-betting sites, these types of futures markets are more a reflection of popular opinion than they are a prediction machine. Ruben Studdard was the favorite to win American Idol on Tradesports, but I think that was due more to the fact that he was the judge's favorite than it was due to these traders having some type of inside knowledge as to how many people were going to phone in their votes.
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