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Random Thoughts

By

Silk Milk, Mr. Shobin!

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  • Squawk Box!

  • I spent a good hour talking to the uber-savvy Tom DeMark this morning (and I never spend an hour doing anything) and we're chewing through the particulars of his potential attendance at Minyans in the Mountains. It's not confirmed yet-he's trying to unwind a scheduling conflict-but we should know soon if he's gonna gaggle at our fest. While I had his captive attention, I asked for his vibes on the tape. "The S&P has 12 points upside with "massive downside", he offered, "this is really a critical juncture for the market." Old school Minyans might remember that he's proved quite prescient in the past and while no approach is fail safe, I wanted to share his vibes with ye faithful.

  • Pass the Herb! Senor Greenberg talks Netflix (NFLX), Blockbuster (BBI), Philly Consolidated (PHLY) and Hansen Natural (HANS) and, of course, Minyans in the Mountains (MIM2).

  • Speaking of which...

  • Please keep BKX 100 on your radar as the piggies are the nearest tell in the trading swell.

  • There's a case of PBR nestled somewhere in Paul Kasriel's missive.

  • In the interest of full disclosure, I'm told that the offerings are starting to lift for MiM2 (read: limited supply). If you're intending to join us near the foothills of Santa Barbara, you may wanna lock and load.

  • And we gotta save a spot for Keira...

  • Don't we need three bears if Goldilocks is gonna rock?

  • If my boat is a rockin', don't come knockin'...

  • And just like that, Steve Shobin strolls into the hallowed halls. Noice!

  • Raaaaid! Vibes from Morgan economist Stephen Roach.

  • "Mr. Roach sounds much more optimistic about a soft landing concerning the world's trade imbalances than he has in the past. Apparently he did not previously anticipate China's move to make their currency a little more flexible, although mostly what they did is solidify the power of all Asian currencies with their own as the pivot. All of a sudden his predicition of financial problems caused by $700 billion chronic trade deficits in the U.S. have morphed into "I am not yet convinced that the overall level of real U.S. interest rates is likely to rise enough to spark a more disruptive strain of global rebalancing". Mr. Roach capitulated on his negative stance on U.S. bonds about a month ago. Now he has decided that all of his worries in the past about the process of rebalancing causing financial consternation were folly. He may be right. But I don't think so. A soft landing in trying to correct these imbalances still is a very small probability in my mind." -- John Succo on today's Buzz

  • The Russell rebalancing.

  • Blimely!

  • Hey Boo, food for thought as you court Winnie...

  • China vibes from the FT.

  • Run, Forrest, Run!

  • Donkeys of the world unite!

  • Perspective check!



    R.P.
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