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Advanced Technical Analysis - Ameritrade



Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliott Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.


Ameritrade Holding
(AMTD:NASD), having dropped by 47%, is nearing a completed impulse wave down from its January peaks. It is doing so with some important bottoming indicators (momentum, daily and weekly Demark trend exhaustion indicators) in place and a wave pattern that needs one more new low beneath 9.35 in order to be considered complete. The completion of "5" waves down from the January peak suggests that the entire bounce from the July 2002 low to the January 2004 peak was a corrective ABC zigzag and that the major bearish trend that started in 1999 (at $62.80) is starting again, with a target in the next several years of below $2.97. The short term wave pattern is fairly clear here, so our confidence rating goes to high.

In the short term, we are looking for one more new low beneath the July 19th low of $9.35 to complete a full and well proportioned impulse wave down from the January peak. The next handful of sessions can play out in a number of ways but the best scenario is for a new low to be registered sometime in the next 2-3 weeks below $9.35. We will look to identify the usual bottoming indicators we watch for once prices break below $9.35. Only if prices move above $12.91 would we conclude that a bottom has already been struck and that the bounce we are looking for is underway.

The ideal setup then is thus: a bounce that occurs below $9.35 that registers several bottoming indicators for a move to upper Fibonacci resistance in the $12.20-$14.30 area. Once prices meet that upper Fibonacci resistance in a wave II bounce, we will then look for prices to potentially move lower. For now, we will keep AMTD on the radar screen for any move below $9.35 in an attempt to identify a bottom.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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