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Minyan Mailbag: Safeway 5-Year Chart


Ideally, I'd like to see Safeway's stock go back and fill the gap from last week, just to clear up any remaining technical business below.


Hey Professor Macke,

Thanks for those drinks at last week's Mini-Minyanfest.

I had a quick question about your
One Tin Soldier article. You mentioned that you love the 5-year chart on Safeway (SWY) and, after taking a look at it, I think I can see why. Is this big volume breakout through about 4 years of resistance around $26 the reason we should be paying attention? If this were a false breakout, should we see a correction on heavy volume in the next few days?

(click chart for animated version)

MV Intern Nick, aka "Pigpen"

Yo, Nick,

Mrs. Jeffmacke and I had a great time rocking to the Rolling Bones and plan to check 'em out again at our earliest opportunity. As you said, you owe me some beers so you can pay me back then.

In addition to the stuff you mention about the Safeway chart (which is all good), I'm seeing a Big, Rounded, Bottom working its way up the right-side cheek. When mapping out a chart-based trading idea, I always adjust my time frames to reflect the date I'm using for my thesis. So, if Safeway's short-term breakout is a headfake, yeah, you would figure to see a pullback relatively soon to levels BELOW 26. If SWY's stock simply pulls back to 26 without breaking, you need to get more bullish if you're running things on the Macke Plan (and for the love of all you consider holy, why wouldn't you be striving to live in accordance to the teachings of Jeffmacke?).

In the bigger picture, unless it starts breaking below our butt (23ish being a decent choice for low-point of the range), it's not broken (i.e.: the bottom hasn't gone Kathleen Turner and starting sliding down the back of the thighs).

Ideally, I'd like to see Safeway's stock go back and fill the gap from last week, just to clear up any remaining technical business below. If my big-picture idea is correct, SWY should eventually start filling the gap on the left hip portion of my Huge Sexy Bottom. That works out to the area from 33 to 36 which is over 30% higher from where we are now.


Position in SWY

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