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Random Thoughts


Was there trading before instant message?

  • I've got a major dilemma on my paws. While my Saturday afternoon is spoken for (Succo Softball rematch), I'm torn on the Friday afternoon exercise. Minyan Hoops---and taking it to the paint---or Minyan Dodgeball--and taking it on the chin? I've been heretofore committed to basketball but the more I hear the MVHQ internal chatter, the more I wanna take this little red ball off my nose and whip it at an editorial pledge!

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey found a slight increase in bullish sentiment to 42.2% from 42.1% and an increase in bearish sentiment to 34.5% from 33.7% in the prior week.

  • I guess, in hindsight, I should have rolled my SunMicro calls lower into the earnings. I didn't--but I continue to hold my January upside paper. I think President Fish is gonna share some thoughts on the name shortly.

  • The BKX stochastics are toppy---and a bevy of other sectors (tech, chips, trannies) are somewhat oversold still---so keep an eye peeled for rotation station. That's the best case scenario for the bulls---rolling rotations as opposed to outright migrations.

  • Was there trading before instant message?

  • The trannies are clearly the fly in the eye of the upside ointment today (broke yesterday's low/the 200-day moving average). I'm not a registered Dow Theorist but I know enough to respect the drek. That--and the 2:1 negative breadth--has quelled most of my upside try efforts thus far. My vibes are in tact, I've just learned to look for a high quack count before risking my hard earned coin.

  • Drugs not hugs? The DRG continues its out-performance as big cap pharma bases over former resistance (and current support).

  • Homie Don't Play Today! The homebuilders are currently off a percent (after acting snazzy in the face of bad news yesterday). It makes sense that the first probe of HGX 202 (former support) failed but I'm keeping a very close eye on these pups for further snappage.

  • The dollar is off a quiet 30 bips thus far. That's nuttin', honey, in the grand scheme of things but it remains on my radar as a fairly snazzy (contra asset-class tell).

  • Wanna see some quick pics of MIM2 from Ojai, California?

  • Tops on the bovine wish list? To hold S&P 1260-1264, which is past support and newfound resistance.

  • Hey Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens--we'll see YOU at MIM3!

  • The most important decision I made yesterday? Paring my piggy puts? Nah. Riding my metal names? Nope. Fingering Centex and Texan as our two primary tells? Uh uh. It was locking in on our Saturday Night Ranch Party Band. I went with an agile Grateful Dead-centric collection (shocker!). The keyboards cost extra but hey--we gotta have keyboards at a Ranch Party!

  • "We see signs of increased strain in the economy, from housing to retail, transportation, tech, etc. EVENTUALLY (timing these things are tricky as you know) we think the economic weakness surfaces, the FOMC reverses course and lowers rates as a economic slowdown/possible recession looms. If I am wrong, money will be nicely stowed, earning 5-5.25% with great liquidity should conditions change.Treasuries allow us among other things to re-allocate quickly as they are the most liquid assets on Earth!" Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • R.P.
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position in sunw, metals, financials
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