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Random Thoughts


Just slithering along...

  • This sucks!

  • "There's no such thing as a "baby step" when you're standing at the edge of a cliff." -- Dr. John Hussman

  • Wax! Please note Brazil as it broke the 200-day and is trading 3% to the bad.

  • "Value guys are always early and growth guys usually stay too late." -- Professor Vitaliy Katsenelson

  • Raaaaaaid! Checking in with Morgan sage Stephen Roach.

  • S&P 1220 and BKX 100 remain Hoofy's schvitz or get off the pot points. As is his style, he'll look to roll those levels higher if he finds some newfound jig.

  • Or, perhaps they should just launch a financial infotainment community?

  • Norwood? Either would I!

  • "Clearly, most of the major averages have broken out above their respective June highs. Some have even bettered their March highs. Still, others like the small/mid cap indices, are making new all-time highs. For nearly four years (since 9-11-01) we have been adamant that the mid-cap and down complexes were the place to be, as well as "smaller, more nimble mutual funds" that play to those complexes. While we continue to embrace this strategy, be apprised that four years ago the small/mid-caps were roughly 20% under-priced relative to the large-caps. Now they are about 10% overpriced. Moreover, in a rising interest rate environment, large-caps tend to do better. That said, in a strong dollar environment the small/mid-caps have historically outperformed because they don't have as much currency risk. Interestingly, however, the dollar's four-month upside skein was waned over the past few weeks begging the question, "Has the dollar been discounting last week's yuan revaluation?" And make no mistake, last week it was the dollar that got devalued NOT the yuan." -- MiM2 keynote Jeff Saut of Raymond James.

  • Further vibes on the Chinese revaluation.

  • For the second time in as many months, I saw Ashford and Simpson walking down the street. And for the life of me, I couldn't get "Solid as a Rock" out of my head for the rest of the weekend.

  • Yet more vibes on China, this time from Caroline Baum.

  • At what point does terrorism become a "trend" rather than an isolated incident and, for puposes of our process, when does that risk premium begin to price into the market?

  • "As I string together what tech-earnings season has shown us thus far, it looks to me like problems reside in the business or enterprise world, while the consumer remains strong -- thanks, of course, to the housing ATM, which is still working. (Certain locales have shown scattered signs of sputtering, as homes for sale are sitting longer. That would be an early sign of exhaustion in the housing market, if sales don't take off again, which I don't think they will.) In any case, I will be on the lookout for more indications that business spending on tech is weakening." -- Bill Fleckenstein

  • Floyd Norris cashes in his chips.

  • Some rousing housing thoughts on a minxy Monday.

  • "Since May 16th, we've gone 48 straight days without even one day showing a TICK reading on the NYSE of -1000 or less (meaning there hasn't been one day in that time where 1000 or more stocks on the NYSE last traded on a downtick than traded on an uptick). That's a pretty long time - in fact, it's the 10th-longest streak in the past 8 years. The streak can get much longer (it went over 100 days three times), but once it stops, the market has usually run into some short-term trouble. The nine other times the streak reached as long as it is now, once it was broken (the first day with a -1000 TICK reading), the 5-day return in the S&P 500 was -0.3% with only 2 of the 9 instances being positive. So watch for the first big whack with a high minus TICK - it could precede a bit more selling." -- Jason Goepfert on today's Buzz

  • "It's only fairly recently that it finally became clear to me," he added. "It was a revelation in certain respects." -- Elmer Greenspan

  • Do as they do, not as they say.

  • More finger food?

  • There's always an outlier. In this case, it would be Phoebe.

  • It's the end of the world as we know it...

  • The Friday night face plant flick? Kinsey, starring Liam Neeson, and it was definitely worth the price of a pay-per-view!

  • "I've never seen so many greedy people in my life."

  • Only 23 days remain until Minyans migrate to the Mountains and anticipation is starting to build. On top of the world class line-up set to speak, the guest list is similarly splendid as we ready for our Sundance of Finance. With mornings devoted to panels and presentations and afternoons open for golf, softball, spa services and pool side Daisy dips, the Ojai retreat promises to set the standard for years to come. Please join us as we broaden our base of human capital, bridge valuable networks and remind ourselves that the purpose of the journey is the journey itself!

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