By Todd Harrison Jul 25, 2003 8:28 am
Let's end this week with a win!
Walked out this morning
Don't believe what I saw
A hundred billion bottles
Washed up on the shore
Good morning and welcome back to the chaos theory. Hoofy gave yesterday's sky the 'ol college try but once the green stalk balked, the ursine uglies swooped in for the kill. It was a stunning reversal of fortune and one that left the bovine baffled. With the Ebay (EBAY:NASD) dismay adding to the downside fray, will today be the day Boo makes Hoofs pay? It's freaky Friday in Minyanville kiddies, so suck it up and stick it out--we've got one day left!
Yesterday's action was a textbook example of why active traders should never leave their screens. The Minx labored furiously all day and despite her best efforts, Stella couldn't find her groove. As the session wore on and the critters got anxious, the writing began to emerge on the wall of worry. The slippage took out intraday support, the macro hedge funds pressed their bets and we closed on the lows. After hours, the poster child for speculation reported and got thumped for a nickel. Traders pressed on that news (which could explain the green futes) and we enter the new day with wide eyes and bushy tails.
Is the big kahuna lurking in the shadows? While it may be too early to pen the equity epitaph, there are some reasons to paws. The NDX trendline, which hasn't been breached since we invaded Iraq, is perilously close to doing so (NDX 1250). Couple that with the widespread complacency, crowded bull camp, "crossover" sell signal (S&P), a potential psychology shift (Ebay) and a mixed earning's bag and, well, we're overdue for some goo.
The risk to Boo's thesis? In a nutshell, liquidity and perspective. Until proven otherwise, tech remains in a healthy pattern of higher lows and higher highs. That, coupled with S&P 975 support, will give the bulls a hoof to stand on as we edge into today's muck. As long as we hold those lines, the bulls will insist they're fine. NDX 1250. S&P 975. Know 'em. Learn 'em. Live 'em. Love 'em. If (big if) the S's shake through, there's a vacuum clean through to S&P 950.
What do I think? I think Fokker should have offered me his ticket to last night's Springsteen show. I also think that the Minx is at an important technical juncture and everybody knows it. Scattered pullbacks have littered the bullish phase but each time Boo pounced, the market bounced. That's weeded out the bearish bets and, as an extension, greased the slide for the eventual downside ride. Will it be today? Watch our levels (we're right there), monitor the action in the internets and semicaps(sentiment), keep an eye on the brokers (XBD 545 breaks a triple bottom) and think positive--it begins within.
It's been a long few weeks and I'm sure most of you are ready for the Friday night face plant. Our requisite two-day respite is right around the corner and we'll have all weekend to focus on the important stuff. First, your attention is required for sevinish more hours and I'll ask you to be tip top, schnitz hot and second to none (sir) as we end our stretch. In honor of thy commitment, we'll be ordering up a fresh batch of protein for the lunch munch. Sharpen your chopsticks Minyans, for it's Sashimi Friday in the city of critters! Wasabi!
Good luck today.
position in ebay, qqq
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